According to analysts the prices of apartments in Bulgaria will not decrease further. The experts refer to the prices of actual purchases, underlining that the advertised prices sometimes are unrealistically high. There is already are a mismatch of the demand and the properties on offer. The most desirable properties have sold and there is a lack of good quality homes. At the same time developers can not launch new projects because there is no financing. The off-plan sales have completely stopped. Some experts recommend that the properties prices in Bulgaria should not be calculated per meter, as this can some times lead to confusion.

According to the State Agency for Tourism (DAT), three-four hotels go bankrupt every week in Bulgaria. They are unable to re-pay their mortgages. Many hotels are put for sale but there are no buyers and banks repossess them but it remains unclear if the banks will be able to sell them.

It seems that Bulgaria follows the road of Spain where the state buys the bankrupted hotels and demolishes them, in order to create parks.

According to the statistics, in the first half of the last year, 820 new hotels have opened on the Black Sea coast. As result of the construction boom the number of hotels and holiday properties is much higher than the number of  the tourists.  Many hotels can not sell all their beds and their owners suffer losses. All this makes it impossible for the hoteliers to repay their mortgages and other credits and go bankrupt.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

Because of the recession many sellers drop the prices of their properties to be able to sell them. The number of prices of apartments in the big Bulgarian cities which are under 30 000 Euros have drastically increased in the first three months of this year. One of the reasons for this is the lack of buyers due to the strict rules of the bank for lending. A few months ago all Bulgarian banks stopped lending money for the purchase of apartment in prefabricated blocks from the communist era. After that the banks have sharply increased the mortgage interest rates and have decreased the size of the mortgages, thus have put off many prospective buyers. In reality the Bulgarian property market have moved back to the situation years ago of expensive mortgages.

In Plovdiv 70 apartments are on the market for prices under 30 000 Euros. Only 20 of them are off plan. Prefabricated apartments with total area exceeding 90 sq m are for sale for as little as 13 000 Euros.
In Varna the number of the apartments under 30 000 Euros is 60, the cheapest property is a one-bedroom apartment for 20 000 Euros in the outskirts of the city. There is ever an apartment in the central parts of Varna offered at 30 000 Euros, which is still at the off-plan stage. Prefabricated apartments sell for about 25 000 Euros in the outskirts of Varna.

In the second largest city on the Black Sea, Burgas, the number of apartments on offer are twice more than in Varna but most of them are off-plan and in the outskirts of the city. The cheapest offer, €15 120, is for an off-plan apartment with are of 41 sq m. There are ten prefabricated properties for sale at prices starting at 24 000 Euros. All of them are located in the outskirts of Burgas.

In Russe there are 20 apartments under 30 000 Euros. The cheapest offer is for a studio for 12 900 Euros. Prefabricated apartments start at 15 000 Euros.

While in the country at the moment prices range from 440 to 580 Euros per sq m, in the capital Sofia, the property prices have dropped everywhere, apart from the central parts of the city. The sharpest drop of prices is in the southern parts of the city where there are more unfinished buildings then anywhere else in the city. The prices of prefabricated apartments have fallen more than any other. While last year they used to sell for more than 1000 Euros per sq m, now they are on offer for under 750 Euros per sq. m. Newly finished properties are offered for 700 – 800 Euros sq m. Off-plan apartments are offered for 500 Euros per sq m. Some developers offer discounts of 20 % of the prices of their finished apartments in cases of payment in cash. Others who are stable financially offer 15 leasing schemes to their customers.

The sales of properties have decreased twice in the first three months of 2009 in comparison with the same period in 2007. The main reason is the shrinking of the market. The investments in the property market are much less than in previous years.

In order to attract clients the construction companies now tend to building longer – up to 3 years. At the same time they  accept smaller instalments during the construction and a bigger final instalment when the project is ready. It is difficult to make predictions at the moment but for the time being there are no significant changes in the cities.

Despite the financial crisis, the property prices in the suburbs of Sofia have been constantly increasing due to the migration of people from smaller towns and villages who seek employment in the capital. In the last year, more than 30 000 people have relocated to Sofia, while 12 000 people have moved to Varna, the second largest Bulgarian city. The same tendency can be seen in Plovdiv, Russe and Burgas. The newcomers to the cities usually look for cheaper properties in the suburds. As result the prices of apartments in those areas keep rising. The average porperty price in Sofia is 1094 Euros per square metre, while in the county it is 588 Euros per square metre. The studios seem to be very popular and their sales have increased by 17% in the last months. At the same time the demand for one-bedroom apartments have decreased by 28% and of larger apartments by 3%. Most of the sales are of newly built properties.

About 90% of the buyers of holiday properties in Bulgaria at the moment are Russians. More than 80% of them are prepared to purchase off plan if an agency gives them recommendation. 60 % of the Russians pay on the spot in cash. There are two groups of Russians on the market in Bulgaria. Russians from the large cities came a year ago and started purchasing bigger apartments for themselves. This summer the second group of Russians from smaller towns like Novosibirsk and Saratov appeared. They took the niche of the Brits and they look for smaller and cheaper apartments.

The Bulgarians are still not a market factor. Richer Bulgarians prefer to buy properties in Greece. The property crisis will kill the speculators and will allow bigger players to take a bigger share of the market. Only the investors of long-term projects will profit. Currently, in order to complete a project successfully, the investors need to sell off plan at least 30-40% of the development.

The sales of properties in Bulgaria have decreased for the first time in the last few years, according to the Land Registry. From January to June 2008 there have been 134 891 sales while for the same period of the last year their number was 136 457. The decrease is just by 1.1% but it is a fact. Since 2003 the number of the sales has been increasing by about 20% per annum and this has lead to a constant increase in the prices of properties. At the moment, the buyers are still active in Sofia, Varna, Burgas, Plovdiv and Pleven. The number of sales in these cities has increased, though insufficiently. However, in many regional centres like Shumen, Sliven, Smolyan, Pazardjik, Veliko Turnovo, Vidin, Vratsa and Gabrovo the sales have decreased, and in Ruse and Razgrad this decrease has exceeded 10%. Last year Ruse was the leader in the property price increase which reached 41% but the high prices have put off many prospective buyers.

On the Black Sea coast it seems that the buyers’ activity has moved south. The Land Registry in Nessebar which covers Sunny Beach, St. Vlas, and Ravda reported a decrease of 12.5% for the first half of this year. At the same time the sales in Tsarevo have increased by 50%.

The interest in agricultural land has not diminished at all, according to the activity of the most developed market of agricultural land in the country, which is in the area of Dobrich, Lom and Montana.

Despite this, Bulgaria is still in the first place in the world for the increase of property prices from June 2007 to June 2008. According to Knight Frank the prices of properties in Bulgaria have increased on average by 32.3%.