LM Legal Services Blog

According to the report of the Center for Economic Development the annual inflation in Bulgaria for 2011 was 2.8%. The predictions for 2012 are that the inflation will be between 2,5% and 3%. The unemployment for 2011 was on the average of 10,2% and for 2012 the expectations are that it will reach 10,5%. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2012 the Bulgarian GDP will reach its volume from the times before the recession.

The Bulgarian parliament passed the Bugdet 2012. According to the budget the growth of the Bulgarian economy in 2012 will be 2.9%. However, according to the National Statistics Institute the Bulgarian econcomy has slowed down in the last quarter of 2012. The Bulgarian GDP has not changed in the period July – September 2011 and has increased by 1.3% on an annual bassis. Usually the summer months are considered very good for the Bulgarian economy because of the expected income from tourism. The expectations were that slump of the European markets will affect Bulgarian economy in the autumn, however this has happened much earlier. The Bulgarian government is prepared to revise Budget 2012 in case that the situation gets worse.

The total  value of the properties owned by Bulgarian families was 140 billion levs (about 70 billion euros) in the end of 2009, while in the end of 2008 it was 176 billion levs (about 80 billion euros), according to Industry Watch. The drop is due to the devaluation of the properties during the recession and Industry Watch expect that this tendency will continue in the next six months.

The  devaluation of properties has slowed down in the last quarter of 2009 and it has reached 2% in the end of 2009 in comparison to the previous quarter. Because of this devaluation the purchase power of the middle class Bulgarian measured in square metres of living area has increased by 50% in 2009.

The financial resources of the Bulgarian families were 36 billion levs (18 billion euros) in total in the end of 2009 and this is an increase by 7% in comparison with 2008. The annual speed of the growth has slowed down, however, as in 2007 the growth was by 28.5% while in the last year it was just 8%. The amount of 36 billion levs does not include the debt and the credits of the Bulgarians. Last year the debt of the Bulgarians was 1/3 of their financial resources, now the level of debt has decreased according to Industry Watch.

The forecasts for a slow down on the property market in Bulgaria came true – it is back to the levels of 2004. The number of deals with real estate have dropped by 35% in 2009 and stopped at 200 678. This drop was deeper than the one in 1997 – 1998 when the country experienced hyperinflation and bank crisis.

According to the Land Registry the hysterical purchases of apartments in the big cities has died away and the drop in the number of purchases  in Sofia, Varna, Plovdiv and Pleven has dropped lower than the average for the country. In the capital Sofia this number has dropped below the lever of 2004 when the purchases were 28 837.

The market in the Black Sea resorts and in the agricultural areas of the country is fairing better than in the rest of the country during the recession. In Nessebar on the Black Sea there were 6461 deals in 2009 which is only by 23% lower than in 2008. In Dobrich the drop is even lower. The interest in agricultural land in the area has remained the same.

The number of new buildings in Bulgaria has dropped by 70% on an annual basis. In the last quarter of 2009 the number of the new planning permissions was 1343,  while in the same period of 2008 they were 2452, according to the National Statistics Institute.  This huge drop has come after 5 years of permanent increase of the number of planning permissions.

The recession in the construction industry  has also had its impact on the size of the new apartments – their living area has decreased by 24% only from October to December 2009 in comparison with the previous quarter. Annually the drop has been more drastic – it has exceeded 70%.

The construction of new offices has also suffered. In the last quarter of 2010 only 63 planning permissions have been issued, which is a drop by 25% in comparison with the previous quarter and 37% on an annual basis. Most of the already finished offices are left empty, despite the decrease of the rents.

The price drop of real estates in 2009 is on average by 20% but in some parts of the country it has reached 60%. The real prices at which purchases are made in the Bulgarian capital Sofia are on average 23%  lower in comparison with the period 2007 – 2008, i.e. the average price in 2009 was 980 Euros/ sq.m.

The price drop in the other cities has not been so drastic but property prices there have not reached the levels of those in the capital. In Varna, the second Bulgarian city, the price drop in 2009 was of 14%, while  in Plovdiv and Burgas (the third and the fourth largest cities) – 15%.