LM Legal Services Blog

The property prices in Bulgaria have dropped on average by 12.4% in the first three months of the year according to information of the National Statistics Institute. The sharpest price drop was in Veliko Turnovo – 25.1%, followed by Kyustendil – 21.5% and Blagoevgrad – 20.5%. The average price for the country is 1190.7 levs (608 Euros) per sq m. The most expensive apartments are in Varna – 1982 levs (1013 Euros) per sq m, closely followed by Sofia – 1980 levs per sq m.

Now is a good time to buy a property according to estate agents and there are no expectations in the next two years for the property price to start going up.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

Sofia is in third place among the European capitals in terms of profitability of office space. A high quality office building can have a 10% annual return. Only the Russian capital Moscow (11.5%) and the Ukrainian capital Kiev (14%) are rating better than Sofia. The profitability of office space in the Bulgarian capital has increased by 3% or 300 points from its lowest position three years ago. The figures for Belgrade are similar – 10% – while for the other Balkan cities this ratio varies from 7% to 8.5%. Only offices in the Romanian capital Bucharest show higher annual return of 9.5%. The more developed markets of office space like Prague, Budapest and Warsaw have much lower levels of annual returns of 6.75 % – 7.75%.

The rent of office space in the Bulgarian capital has actually decreased by 6.85% in the last year and now is 17 EUR/sq.m. on average as it is linked to the decreasing prices of properties in general. There is similar decrease of office rent in Madrid, Dublin, Moscow, Kiev, Belgrade, Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest. In the 15 older EU-member states the office rent has decreased by 4% on average.

The number of purchases of property in Bulgaria is expected to increase in the summer according to analysts. However, there will be no growth unlike the last two years due to the lack of fresh money and the stricter rules for lending of the Bulgarian banks. The prices of properties in Bulgaria are expected to decrease by further 15% by the end of the year.

The investment funds will be able to buy properties on territory of EU-member-states, according to the draft amendments of the law for the investment funds suggested by the Committee for Financial Supervision. Until now these funds could invest only in Bulgaria. The other significant amendment is that the minimal capital will increase from 600 000 levs to 1 million levs. The funds will be able to cooperate and work together on large property project which they would not be able to do on their own. The requirement that the depository bank which holds the money of the fund should give credits to them shall be removed. Other amendments include the possibility for investment in bonds and futures issued with the aim to finance major infrastructural projects. The requirement to obligatory increase the initial capital in order to get the right to operate as a fund will be also removed.

The rules for terminating the license of the company. The fund will be able to request it and in such case it will continue to operate as a normal company not as an investment fund.