According to analysts the prices of apartments in Bulgaria will not decrease further. The experts refer to the prices of actual purchases, underlining that the advertised prices sometimes are unrealistically high. There is already are a mismatch of the demand and the properties on offer. The most desirable properties have sold and there is a lack of good quality homes. At the same time developers can not launch new projects because there is no financing. The off-plan sales have completely stopped. Some experts recommend that the properties prices in Bulgaria should not be calculated per meter, as this can some times lead to confusion.

Almost 28% is the decrease in the number of deals on the property market in Bulgaria annually. This number is different in the different parts of the country but only Sofia and Varna have similar statistics. 72% of those who would like to buy a property in Sofia and Varna are prepared to pay not more than 40 000 Euros. In Plovdiv and Bourgas the buyers are prepared to pay not more than 25 000 Euros.

In 2009, 42% of the buyers paid in cash and 37% of the sellers had financial difficulties, not necessary inability to pay their mortgages or bad credits. In 2009 most of the buyers bought newly built properties and only 12 % of them have bought prefabricated apartments. The most active buyers were between 26 and 35 years of age.

The construction and the notarial chamber have offered to the Bulgarian government to freeze the interest rates for mortgages in case that this is the only home of the mortgagee.  It was proposed that the properties of the debtors should not be repossessed.  This will stabilise the property market according to the chamber.  Some analysts predict that the turnover in construction will decrease by 2 billion levs because of the recession. At the same time the debts between constuction companies will increase which will create a lot of tention.

Mortgage interest rates offered by Bulgarian banks have reached their peak in November. According to the specialists the increase of the interest rates have stopped rather then the lending of new mortgages itself. Most of the banks have tightened their conditions last month and the largest mortgages now cover not more than 75% of the price of new properties in the big Bulgarian cities, while in smaller towns they do not exceed 65% of the price. Concerning apartments in prefabricated blocks from the days of socialism, mortgages do not go over 60% of the price.  At the same time, the number and the size of the new mortgages have decreased in November.

Despite the steady growth of the Bulgarian economy, the international financial crisis is unlikely to miss Bulgaria. The Bulgarian economy is not dependent on the US economy, however 2/3 of the Bulgarian trade relations are with the EU countries, where the signs of recession are rather obvious.  According to the experts the recession will affect Bulgaria in 1 -1.5 years.  It might start in the winter when household expenses are higher, as well as the inflation.  The economic growth is likely to stop due to the slowing down of the property market and the interest increase.

About 90% of the buyers of holiday properties in Bulgaria at the moment are Russians. More than 80% of them are prepared to purchase off plan if an agency gives them recommendation. 60 % of the Russians pay on the spot in cash. There are two groups of Russians on the market in Bulgaria. Russians from the large cities came a year ago and started purchasing bigger apartments for themselves. This summer the second group of Russians from smaller towns like Novosibirsk and Saratov appeared. They took the niche of the Brits and they look for smaller and cheaper apartments.

The Bulgarians are still not a market factor. Richer Bulgarians prefer to buy properties in Greece. The property crisis will kill the speculators and will allow bigger players to take a bigger share of the market. Only the investors of long-term projects will profit. Currently, in order to complete a project successfully, the investors need to sell off plan at least 30-40% of the development.

The sales of properties in Bulgaria have decreased for the first time in the last few years, according to the Land Registry. From January to June 2008 there have been 134 891 sales while for the same period of the last year their number was 136 457. The decrease is just by 1.1% but it is a fact. Since 2003 the number of the sales has been increasing by about 20% per annum and this has lead to a constant increase in the prices of properties. At the moment, the buyers are still active in Sofia, Varna, Burgas, Plovdiv and Pleven. The number of sales in these cities has increased, though insufficiently. However, in many regional centres like Shumen, Sliven, Smolyan, Pazardjik, Veliko Turnovo, Vidin, Vratsa and Gabrovo the sales have decreased, and in Ruse and Razgrad this decrease has exceeded 10%. Last year Ruse was the leader in the property price increase which reached 41% but the high prices have put off many prospective buyers.

On the Black Sea coast it seems that the buyers’ activity has moved south. The Land Registry in Nessebar which covers Sunny Beach, St. Vlas, and Ravda reported a decrease of 12.5% for the first half of this year. At the same time the sales in Tsarevo have increased by 50%.

The interest in agricultural land has not diminished at all, according to the activity of the most developed market of agricultural land in the country, which is in the area of Dobrich, Lom and Montana.

Despite this, Bulgaria is still in the first place in the world for the increase of property prices from June 2007 to June 2008. According to Knight Frank the prices of properties in Bulgaria have increased on average by 32.3%.

After the property boom in the last 5 years, the market has calmed down according to the big Bulgarian property agencies. The supply has exceeded the demand by 50%. At the moment more than 4 million square metres of living area is being built in Sofia alone, which in other terms means about 60 000 apartments that will be on the market in 2 years time. In the first six months of 2008 the prices of apartments have increased on average by 17% in the Bulgarian regional centres, while for Sofia this figure is 21%. Due to the increase of the interest rate and the inflation the number of the purchases has decreased after April by 10%. At the same time, banks have been trying to activate the market by keeping the interest rates low and by giving mortgages in stable but not so popular currencies like Swiss Francs. Four factors determine the development of the property market – the supply, the inflation rate and the higher price of mortgages and the more strict criteria of the banks. According to specialists, the property market in Sofia has reached its peak and a secondary market of the newly built properties has emerged. However, more serious conclusions can be drawn in the end of the year.