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The estate agents expect a real drop in the number of purchases of holiday homes at the Bulgarian Black Sea resorts. Some expect a decrease of 20%, others a much higher drop of 40 – 50% in comparison with last year.

If in previous years most of the buyers were British, now it is expected that the market will be 100% Russian. However, the devaluation of the Russian Ruble means that despite that fact that Bulgaria is one of the most popular destinations for the purchase of second homes, it is likely that the property market will shrink by 40%. Some estate agent even think that the boom of the Russian market was last year and this year the results will be less encouraging.

Property prices of holiday homes at the Black Sea have dropped by 20% and for the new season and now they start at about 650 EUR per sq m.

Irish estate agencies offer holiday apartments in the Bulgarian resorts at prices which 35% lower than the original ones. Part of the offer is that if the purchase is completed by the end of the month the buyers will save further 500 Euros.

In Sunny Beach on the Black Sea cost the cheapest offer is 24 990 Euros for a studio apartment. At the same time in the ski resort of Bansko studios are on offer for 20 000 Euros and generally prices at the mountain resorts are lower.

402.6 million Euros is the total turnover from merging and acquisitions in the first three months of this year, which is a decrease of 18.2% or 72% less than in the first quarter of 2008. The recession has hit the merging and acquisitions in Bulgaria. Only 32 M&A have been completed in the first three months of this year. In the same period of last year there were 136 deals to the value of 3.5 billion Euros.

The decrease in the first three months of 2009 still can not give a clear idea about the market situation later during the year. The prices of companies have dramatically decreased and the number of deals has shrunk by 1/3 on annual basis. The analysts still think that the situation is not that bad. In March the number of the deals has increased which might be a sign of recovery at the end of 2009.

For the first time in four years there are clear signs that the interest towards holiday homes in Bulgaria has decreased. The major buyers on this market – the Irish and the English – have stopped buying. The estate agents now joke that the result of this crisis is exactly what the greens have been striving to achieve – there is no construction in the resorts whatsoever.

According to the analysts, the slump has come as a natural result of the wish of the developers to constantly increase the number of foreign buyers, taking advantage of the low prices. At the moment there are no buyers at all and many developers sell their properties well below their value. Those few developers who have free cash despite the recession do not want to invest in the overdeveloped Black Sea and mountain resorts. There the property prices have dropped so much that a studio costs as much as a new middle class car. Despite this, there are no buyers. The supply on the holiday property market is 80% higher than the demand. There are thousands of sellers and no buyers. There is no secondary market due to the low rental income.

40 000 Euros can buy you a furnished one bedroom apartment in Sunny Beach. Most buyers receive not only discounts but also fitted kitchens, furniture or at least laminated floor.

In Bansko the situation looks similar. A one bedroom apartment of 80 sq m, situated close to the gondola lift costs 38 000 Euros. Further away from the lift in the direction of the central parts of the town price fall and for 30 000 Euros investors can buy an apartment of 64 sq m. Completed furnished apartments sell for about 600 Euros per sq m.

Although the holiday homes market has reached new lows, the analysts believe that in long term there will be good prospects for its development. The recession itself has lead to to preservation of the nature and this will eventually attract new buyers and tourists. On the other hand the recession has brought new lower prices of materials and labour. Many companies which got involved in construction because of the high profits are now going bankrupt. The developers are becoming more careful and there are expectations that the new projects will be of much better quality and with better location.

Regardless of the fact that the British and Irish buyers have lost interest towards the Bulgarian market, the analysts expect that soon Russians, Poles and Scandinavians will start buying in great numbers in Bulgaria. However, they look for different products and it seems that what has been built for the British buyers will not satisfy them. The holiday apartment or house will be less important than the environment, the peace and quiet, and the services on offer.

Construction projects in Bulgaria exceeding 2,5 billion Euros have been put on hold because of the recession. There are a few large projects, which do not have problems with financing. The fear of bankruptcy and the lack of free money is the reason for the investors to give up their plans for big projects and to sell their business. Some developers are prepared to sell parts of their future developments at lower price just to be able to finish their projects. On 2 April 2009 they met with Russian investors at a business meeting organised in the Russian capital Moscow. There were different projects on offer – holiday homes, residential homes, power plants, regulated and unregulated land, concrete buildings and whole residential areas. However the accent was on holiday homes and golf courses throughout Bulgaria.

Apart from the Russians the other type of investors interested in Bulgaria are those from the Middle East. Some of them are prepared to put on hold their projects in their home countries in order to buy at low prices attractive projects in Europe and in the USA.