Bulgaria alongside Romania, will experience a shock because of the global slow down of the world economy according to analysts. There will be job cuts both in these countries, as well as in Spain, Italy and the U.K. where many Bulgarians and Romanians work to support their families back home. The lack of access to foreign capital will be the major problem for the the East-European economies next year according to BNP Paribas. The huge foreign disbalance must be corrected now to avoid problems in the future. The expectation is that Romanian economy will shrink by 0.6%, while Bulgarian economy will shrink by 1,2%. The official unemployment figures are on the increase and has already reached 5.9% in Bulgaria and 4% in Romania in October 2008. In the last six years, unemployment has been steadily decreasing due to the emigration of work force to the West. The return of many of the this guest workers back home will combine with the inability of those who remain abroad to support their families in their homeland. In Bulgaria the money sent from workers abroad used to amount to 5% of the GDP according to the International Organisation for Migration.