LM Legal Services Blog

The Bulgarian National Statistics Institute has announced that from July to September 2011 the Bulgarian GDP has increased BY 0.3% in comparison with the previous quarter of 2011. In comparison with the same period of 2010, the growth is by 1.6%. Nevertheless, the Bulgarian economy is slowing down. In the first quarter of 2011 the growth of the GDP was 3.3%, while in the second it was 2%. According to the analysts in the beginning of 2012 the growth will slow down even more it will not enter into a recession.
In the last year the productivity of the Bulgarian economy was one of the best in Europe – exceeding 7%. Partially this was due to the lost of jobs, partially to increased production. The National Statistics Institute has announced that in the first quarter of this year the Bulgarians have increased their productivity by 5.9% on an annual basis. The highest increase was in industry, while the worst was in agriculture.

The planning permissions for apartment buildings which have been issued in the first three months of 2009 have been by 40% less than in the same period of 2008, according to the National Statistics Institute. 1470 projects have received planning permissions from January to March 2009. They are for 6530 apartments with a total area of 895 173 sq m. The number of the apartments has decreased by 49% and of the total area, also by 49% in comparison with the same period of 2008.

79 office buildings, as well as 978 other type of buildings – industrial, etc – have received planning permissions. The number of administrative buildings is by 21% less, while their total area has increased by 21%. The number of all other types of buildings has decreased by 36% and their total area has decreased by 44%.

The only tendency that continues into 2009 from the same period of 2008 is that the major part of the planning permissions for new apartment buildings have been issued in the large administrative centres of the country -
Burgas – 185, Sofia – 182, Varna – 170, and Plovdiv – 158. The number of newly planned apartments in Sofia is 1340, in Varna – 1 305, in Burgas – 896, in Blagoevgrad – 668 and in Plovdiv – 537.

The number of mortgages lent in the first two months of the year in Bulgaria is twenty times lower in comparison with the same time last year. In January and February last year the banks lent mortgages to the value of 355 million levs, in the same months of this year the same figure was 18 million levs. The positive effect of the limiting of the landing is that for the first time in two weeks there is a tendency for decreasing the interest rate, although not by all banks. This decrease is of 0.54% for the mortgages in levs and 0.36% for the mortgages in euros. The average mortgage interest at the moment is 9.95%.

However, leading bankers think that in a recession the sensible policy is not to drop the interest rate. They have warned the developers to forget about the Brits and the Irish who used to buy all the properties at the Black Sea resorts and to focus on the Bulgarian customers, in order to survive the recession. It is expected that the Bulgarian property market will suffer mostly in September and October of this year.

According to developers the state must support the construction industry and the property market by pressing the water and electricity suppliers to offer better services.

The rent of industrial plots of land in Sofia have increased by 8% or by 0,5 Euros (1 lv) per sq m in 2008 in comparison with 2007. The average rent of industrial land in the country is 6.5 Euros per square metres. This is by 1 Euros more expensive than the neighbouring countries. The reason for this situation is that more and more companies have been looking for industrial land while there have not been many plots on offer.

This year the tendency outlined by the recession is owners first to find tenants and only then to start turning their land into an industrial one. Estate agents expect that the demand for industrial land will not be affected by the recession, as it is expected that more companies will relocate from Western into Eastern Europe.

The Bulgarian economy has been affected by the world recession. The growth of Bulgaria’s GDP in the last quarter of 2008 was just 3.6%, according to the National Statistics Institute. This is an almost two fold slowing down – in the previous quarters the GDP’s growth was between 6.8% and 7.1%.

After Bulgaria moved out of the hyperinflation and the recession during the rule of the government of Zhan Videnov (1996-1997), the economy’s growth has never been so small, except once, nine years ago, in the last quarter of 1999 when the GDP grew by 3,5%. Since then the Bulgarian economy has been growing steadily and the annual growth in the last six years was never under 4%.

The Bulgarian industry has suffered the hardest blow. In the last quarter of 2008 it has had a negative growth of -0.1%. The export has decreased by 6,8% in October-December 2008. At the same time the import has shrunk by 3.7%. The growth of the GDP, although rather small, is due to the growth of the agricultural production of 20.6%. The reason for this is mainly the good harvest.

For the whole of 2008, the GDP’s growth was 6% which was due to the active economic growth in the first nine months of the year. Bulgaria’s GDP for 2008 was 66 billion levs.