Although that according to the estate agencies, the number of property sales in Bulgaria has increased by 22% in 2011, it must be underlined that this includes the sale of Mall Sofia for 100 million Euros which in fact was about 55% of the investments in the last year. In the last quarter of 2011 the investments in property have reached 186 million Euros which was the highest level since 2008. The Bulgarian market has shown vague signs of recovery but in practice the property prices in 2012 remained the same as last year. The British and the Irish buyers have almost disappeared from the Bulgarian market and the hopes that Russian buyers will enter the market in their place proved to be ungrounded. The property sector is not the major driving force of the Bulgarian economic growth and thus the direct foreign investments are not plenty in it at the moment. This is why the expectations are that the property prices will further decrease by 10-20%.

According to the Land Registry, the property sales in the Bulgarian capital Sofia have increased for a second consecutive quarter reaching 3324 sales in the first three months of 2012. On the average in Sofia have been completed 37 sales per day – an annual decrease of 8.8%. The property prices in the capital have increased on the whole and now properties in Sofia are more expensive than properties in Varna, Bulgaria’s Black Sea capital, where for years property prices have been the highest in the country. The average price in Sofia is 1 453.30 levs (appr. 750.5 Euros)/square metre, while in Varna it is 1439.00 levs (appr. 740 Euros)/square metre. In third place are property prices in the second largest Bulgarian city on the Black Sea – Burgas – 1158.83 levs (appr.592 Euros)/ square metre.

The sale of agricultural land in Bulgaria has peaked up in March 2012 after two months of stagnation due to the winter. The areas of Vidin, Stara Zagora, Razgrad and Haskovo are the most attractive for the buyers. In 2011 the number of sales of agricultural land has increased by 10-13% on the average and in same areas has reached 25%. In 126 000 purchases the buyers have acquired 1,185 million decars of land. The secondary market has a share of about 50% of the purchases and the expectations are in this year this share will grow to about 70%. The increase of the rent of agricultural land has been significant.

Globally, the investments in business properties have increased by 14% in 2011 in comparison with 2010. The highest growth was in North America – 52%, followed by Europe and the Middle East – 17%. In Central and Eastern Europe, these investments have reached 19 billion Euros in 2011, which is a growth of 76% in comparison with 2010. This is 68% of the volume of their volume during the property boom years.
In 2011 the investments in business properties in Bulgaria have increased sharply in comparison with 2010. In 2010 they were 20 million Euros, while in 2011 they reached 198 million Euros, which has put the country in the first place regarding this type of investment. In the second place is Slovakia with an annual increase of 534%, followed by the Czech Republic with 366%, South Africa with 269% and Switzerland with 216%. However, the annual yield in Bulgaria has not changed – for office spaces it is about 9,5%, for shops – 9% and for industrial space it is 12%.

The priceses of houses on the Black Sea coast in Bulgaria have fallen on average by 26% and in some cases they go as low as 200 Euros per sq m.  However, the supply of properties for sale has dimished as only owners who need cash urgently sell.  The supply of properties in the southern part of the Bulgarian Black Sea coast has dimished more then the one in the northern part. The prices in the south vary from 400 to 935 Euros.  In some villages the prices of houses have fallen from 13% to 26%, while in other the prices have not changed and even increased by 3%.  The prices in Sveti Vlas for example have gone up by 4% because the number of old houses for sale has descreased while the number of the luxury newly built properties has increased.  In one year the price has risen from 887 Euros/sq m to 923 Euros /sq m.  Similar is the situation in Chernomorets, which has  become popular in the last four years.

In comparison to the south, the properties on the Bulgarian northern coast have always been more expensive. However, the tendency there is exactly the opposite – the prices of houses have decreased and now they vary from 300 to 730 Euros/sq m. The highest price drop is in Kichevo where last year the choice of houses for sale was twice greater than now and the average price was 764 Euros/sq m.  Now, the average price is 593 Euros/sq m.  In other places like Shkorpilovtsy the number of the properties for sale in June 2008 is exactly the same as in June 2009, but the price has dropped by 14% to 593 Euros/sq m.

In general, the analysts think that the prices of houses on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast will not drop too much as their number is limited and already their price is lower than the one of the apartments in the newly built developments.

Property prices in Bulgaria have fallen by 13.57% in the first quarter of 2009 in comparison with the same period last year, according to the Global Property Guide. This time last year the Bulgarian property prices have registered an increase of 16%. Now, in 14 countries the property prices have dropped by more than 10%. The main reason for this tendency in Bulgaria is the drop in the number of foreign buyers.

According to the Global Property Guide the property market is in crisis in 27 out of 32 reviewed countries. The main reasons for this are the growing unemployment, stricter bank rules for landing and diminishing consumer confidence.

Only a few countries experienced increase of property prices. Switzerland is in the first place with a growth of 4% in the first quarter of 2009. The main reason for this is the stable demand supported by falling interest rates and the presence of a great number of foreign buyers. Next are Thailand, Austria and Israel with a price growth of 3%, shortly followed by Shanghai with 1.76%.

The price of agricultural land in Bulgaria has decreased by 40% in the first months of 2009 in comparison with 2008. The reason for this is the recession and the boosted prices of agricultural land in the beginning of 2008. This has put off many prospective buyers.

At the moment the average price is between 200 and 300 levs per 1000 sq m.
The top most expensive agricultural land is in north-east Bulgaria, in the area of Dobrudja, while the cheapest around Vidin in north-west Bulgaria, Haskovo in the south, Lovetch and Gabrovo in mid-Bulgaria and Pernik, close to Sofia.
Despite the price drop, the rent of agricultural land steadily increases. At the moment the average rent is between 18 and 20 levs per 1000 sq m, which is an increase of 10 levs in comparison with the same time last year.

The number of new buildings in Bulgaria in 2008 was 2926 which is an increase of 8,5% in comparison with 2007. Most buildings have been made of concrete and steel, according to the National Statistics Institute. The average area of a newly built apartment is 78,2 sq m, while some years ago it was 80,6 sq m. The largest average apartments are in Gabrovo and Dobrich – 121, 3 sq m – while the smallest ones are in Pernik – 54,1 sq. m.

The mortgage applications in Bulgaria have increased by 20% in April in comparison to March 2009. They are mostly young professionals who work for foreign companies and have good incomes. They would like to take advantage of the good prices and think that it is worth paying higher mortgage interest. Most of them have savings which can pay for 50% of the price of the property that they would like to buy and answer to the stringent requirements of the Bulgarian banks which do not lend higher than 50% mortgages.

In connection with this and with the decreasing property prices, the average amount of the mortgage in Bulgaria has fallen down to 35 236 EUR, levels typical for the summer of 2007.

Prices of apartments in prefabricated apartment blocks are higher by 100 Euros in Sofia. In middle class areas like Mladost and Borovo in the outskirts of the capital prices of prefabricated apartments vary from 550 Euros to 900 Euros per square metre. Newly built properties in those areas vary from 450 Euros to 850 Euros per square metre.

In the central parts of Sofia the prefabricated apartments sell for 1240 Euros per sq m while newly built ones for 770 Euros.

This is due to several reasons. One of them is that some of the newly built apartments are not of good quality. Some of the owners of prefabricated apartments on the other hand keep the prices from last year in their attempt not to lose money. In order to attract buyers, the developers offer free furnishing of at least one room as a bonus. However, despite the falling prices there are only a few buyers who are ready to pay in cash. Many developers offer payment in instalments, only to attract new buyers.

Despite the fact that the number of purchases has slightly increased, there are no expectations that the property prices will increase in the next three months. To the contrary, all professionals expect further reduction of the prices.

According to some analysts the property market in Bulgaria will reach the bottom by the end of this year. The professionals are of the opinion that it is more important how the Bulgarian property market will start moving rather than when. It seems that the Bulgarian government does not have priorities and the economic recovery will be long and difficult. Around the world the property markets will recover with a different speed and at different times. The huge property markets in the USA and the UK give clear signs to the investors that the prices have become attractive and the expectations are that by the middle of the year there will be an increase in the number of purchases.
Developers operating in Bulgaria have raised their voices to request a more open business environment during the recession and clearer rules concerning their relationship with the state. They outline as a serious problem the behaviour of the electricity, water and heating suppliers which are huge monopolies. The suppliers do not invest in infrastructure but wait for the developers to build it and then buy this infrastructure from them, nobody knows when and how. The developers request that the state regulates these relations.

The number of new shopping centres in Europe which will open in 2009 be about 40% lower than the forecasts made a year ago. In 2010 it is expected that this number will be even lower and the total area of the new shopping centres will not exceed 7 million sq m. These will be the lowest figures in the last five years.
Due to the recession in Europe alone the construction of newly planned shopping centres totaling 7 million square metres will be put on hold.

In 2008 in Europe 310 retail centres with a total area of 9 million sq m have been completed. Most of them were in Russia where the growth was 23% and the total area of the newly completed retail centres was 1,65 million sq m. Turkey was in the second place, closely followed by the U.K., Spain and Romania. In terms of percentage, the highest increase was in Bulgaria – 76% and in Romania – 63%.

It is expected that the current recession will have the most powerful effect in Turkey, Russia and the Ukraine. A year ago 58% of the project took place in these countries, but now only 22% of the new shopping centres are completed in these countries.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

402.6 million Euros is the total turnover from merging and acquisitions in the first three months of this year, which is a decrease of 18.2% or 72% less than in the first quarter of 2008. The recession has hit the merging and acquisitions in Bulgaria. Only 32 M&A have been completed in the first three months of this year. In the same period of last year there were 136 deals to the value of 3.5 billion Euros.

The decrease in the first three months of 2009 still can not give a clear idea about the market situation later during the year. The prices of companies have dramatically decreased and the number of deals has shrunk by 1/3 on annual basis. The analysts still think that the situation is not that bad. In March the number of the deals has increased which might be a sign of recovery at the end of 2009.

For the first time in four years there are clear signs that the interest towards holiday homes in Bulgaria has decreased. The major buyers on this market – the Irish and the English – have stopped buying. The estate agents now joke that the result of this crisis is exactly what the greens have been striving to achieve – there is no construction in the resorts whatsoever.

According to the analysts, the slump has come as a natural result of the wish of the developers to constantly increase the number of foreign buyers, taking advantage of the low prices. At the moment there are no buyers at all and many developers sell their properties well below their value. Those few developers who have free cash despite the recession do not want to invest in the overdeveloped Black Sea and mountain resorts. There the property prices have dropped so much that a studio costs as much as a new middle class car. Despite this, there are no buyers. The supply on the holiday property market is 80% higher than the demand. There are thousands of sellers and no buyers. There is no secondary market due to the low rental income.

40 000 Euros can buy you a furnished one bedroom apartment in Sunny Beach. Most buyers receive not only discounts but also fitted kitchens, furniture or at least laminated floor.

In Bansko the situation looks similar. A one bedroom apartment of 80 sq m, situated close to the gondola lift costs 38 000 Euros. Further away from the lift in the direction of the central parts of the town price fall and for 30 000 Euros investors can buy an apartment of 64 sq m. Completed furnished apartments sell for about 600 Euros per sq m.

Although the holiday homes market has reached new lows, the analysts believe that in long term there will be good prospects for its development. The recession itself has lead to to preservation of the nature and this will eventually attract new buyers and tourists. On the other hand the recession has brought new lower prices of materials and labour. Many companies which got involved in construction because of the high profits are now going bankrupt. The developers are becoming more careful and there are expectations that the new projects will be of much better quality and with better location.

Regardless of the fact that the British and Irish buyers have lost interest towards the Bulgarian market, the analysts expect that soon Russians, Poles and Scandinavians will start buying in great numbers in Bulgaria. However, they look for different products and it seems that what has been built for the British buyers will not satisfy them. The holiday apartment or house will be less important than the environment, the peace and quiet, and the services on offer.

The number of purchases of property in Bulgaria is expected to increase in the summer according to analysts. However, there will be no growth unlike the last two years due to the lack of fresh money and the stricter rules for lending of the Bulgarian banks. The prices of properties in Bulgaria are expected to decrease by further 15% by the end of the year.

The number of the personal and business bad debt has been steadily increasing for a second consecutive month according to the statistics of the Bulgarian National Bank. In the end of February 2009 the bad and restructured debt has reached 1.65 billion levs which is an increase of 314 million lev only in a month. This is 3,4% of all loans. In comparison last year this ratio was slightly above 2%. According to analysts this level is still not worrying as the overall condition of the Bulgarian bank system is rather stable. Companies which collect bad debt claim that their work has increased by 40% in the first two months of 2009. The level of the repayment of loans received by Bulgarian banks have decreased by 20%. The level of partial repayments has increased, while the level of total repayments have decreased. Job losses and the increase of the part-time employment are key factors for this.

In February 2009 the number of the delayed repayment has increased by 19% in comparison with January 2009 and for January 2009 the increase was 13% in comparison with December 2008.

While the property prices in Bulgaria fall, the business of letting luxury properties flourish. The rent of luxurious apartments range from 400 to 2000 Euros per month, depending on the quality of the interior. The rent of luxury villas in the beginning of the Vitosha Mountain can reach up to 11 000 Euros per month. Estate agents expect that the rents of luxury properties, especially if they are located in and around Sofia, will steadily increase during the recession. Such properties are often rented by Bulgarian emigrants who come back to Bulgaria to work for large international companies, foreign diplomats and Hollywood stars who shoot films in Bulgaria. The properties fetching the highest rent are located in the central parts of the city, close to all administrative centres and institutions. When they are vacated, they do not stay long on the property market but are rented again within 2-3 weeks. Very often luxury villas in the outskirts of Sofia are rented by people with good incomes who have homes in Sofia but need a high quality property for a short term for their guests.

The real increase of property prices in Bulgaria for the last year was 2.25% according to the Global Property Guide. This puts the country in the fourth place for price increase among 32 property markets across the world. In 2007 the nominal property price increase in Bulgaria was 19.68%. The United Arab Emirates hold the first place for 2008 with a price increase of 40.86%. Shanghai in China is in second place with 4.83% and Switzerland is in third place with 4%. Nominally, without taking the inflation into account, Bulgaria is in second place with a price increase for 2008 of 11.72%.

The property market in Bulgaria showed a decrease of 5.31% taking the inflation into account or nominally 4.15% in the last three months of 2008.

In the last year the property prices have increased only in eight of the 32 countries taking part in the survey, while in 20 there has been a decrease when compared with the inflation. In 2007 the situation was strikingly different – only in six of the countries there was a price decrease, while in 24 there has been an increase of the property prices.

In 2008 the number of newly built properties kept  increasing, according to the new information released by the National Statistics Institute. The number of new buildings has increased by 9% in 2008 in comparison to 2007 and has reached 2939 and the number of apartments in them has increased by 11.5% and has reached 21 041. At the same time the area of the average apartment has decreased by 2 sq. m. from 80.6 sq. m. in 2007 to 78.2 sq. m. in 2008.

The rent of apartments in Bulgaria is expected to increase by 10% during 2009 because more and more people prefer to rent due to the stricter rules of banks for lending.

The most popular apartment for rent are located in the central parts of Sofia and the neighbouring areas like Reduta, Geo Milev, Pliska, Strelbishte and Ivan Vazov. Concerning the size of the rental apartments the studios and the one-bedroom apartments are mostly in demand.  Depending on the location and if the apartment is furnished, it can get a rent of 350 Euros per month. In the up-market Lozenets the rent of luxury apartments is 1000 Euros per month.

Apart from the central parts of the city, Mladost and Drujba in the outskirts are also very popular. Until now, studios and one-bedroom apartments were rented for 250-350 Euros per month but from the next month is expected that these rents will increase by 20 Euros per month. Most tenants try to secure a clause in their rental contracts that their rent will not increase in the next twelve months.

There is a big difference between the property prices officially declared on the Bulgarian market and the willingness of the buyers to pay them. The drop of the number of purchases of property in the last months of 2008 has lead to a new tendency – the buyers dictate the situation on the property market.

According to the official information in the last year Bulgarian property prices have increased by 22%, which has been wiped out by the decrease of the demand for properties by 20% for the same period.

From the beginning of 2009 there is a new trend – the higher proportion of the purchase price  the buyer can pay without a mortgage, the higher reduction of the final price he will get. January 2009 was the first month without foreign participation on the Bulgarian property market. There were no buyers from abroad – neither Bulgarians, nor foreigners.

Due to the recession, renting has become a more popular option than buying. The lack of stability and the uncertainty have forced people to avoid long term bank loans.  At the same time those who have bought a second home have started renting it and the properties for rent have increased by 20%. The highest increase in the number of the rentals was in Rousse – of 31% – while in Blagoevgrad this increase has been the smallest in the country – only of  5%.

In comparison with 2007, the highest increase of the property prices was in Plovdiv – 32% – where the average price in 2008 was 756 Euros/sq.m. The capital Sofia was in second place with increase of 30.13% and an average price of 1087.33 Euros per sq. m. Veliko Turnovo and Rousse share the third place with 27%.

Due to the recession the banks have now offered higher interest rates for savings accounts which range from 6% to 10%. The most popular are fifteen day, one month and three month savings accounts because there is no loss of the interests.

With the increase of the savings accounts’ interests, the loan interest has also increased by 2% on average. Concerning  mortgages, in the last months there has not been any increase due to the fact that customers are unwilling to take new mortgages. The interest rates remain 8% for the mortgages in Euros and 9,5% for the mortgages in levs.

The maximal new foreign debt of Bulgaria in 2009 will be increased by 25% or 2.5 billion levs (about 1.2 billion Euros) according to the decision of the parliamentary budget and finance committee. The council of Ministers will not make any changes in the credit framework during the year as the loans and the beneficiaries have been already chosen. The largest loan is of 600 million Euros and it is for the construction of the nuclear power station Belene.

In the first months of 2008 rentals have increased by 12% in comparison to the same period of 2007. The major reason for this is the constant decrease of the number of purchases caused by the recession and the lack of clarity about the future of the property market.  More and more potential buyers turn towards renting, rather than buying.  This is due to the restrictive politic of the banks and the growing financial uncertainty, as well as the growing expectations for an upcoming decrease of the property prices.

More and more apartments which have been bought for investment are offered for rent. The one bedroom apartment is the mostly in demand – the interest towards renting such kind of apartments have increased by 14% in the first ten months of this year. At the same time the demand for studios has decreased by 6%. This is due to the fact that the rent of the studios and the one bedroom apartments are similar in size.

Despite the financial crisis, the property prices in the suburbs of Sofia have been constantly increasing due to the migration of people from smaller towns and villages who seek employment in the capital. In the last year, more than 30 000 people have relocated to Sofia, while 12 000 people have moved to Varna, the second largest Bulgarian city. The same tendency can be seen in Plovdiv, Russe and Burgas. The newcomers to the cities usually look for cheaper properties in the suburds. As result the prices of apartments in those areas keep rising. The average porperty price in Sofia is 1094 Euros per square metre, while in the county it is 588 Euros per square metre. The studios seem to be very popular and their sales have increased by 17% in the last months. At the same time the demand for one-bedroom apartments have decreased by 28% and of larger apartments by 3%. Most of the sales are of newly built properties.

Office and retail rents fall and will keep falling in the next two years according to Raiffeisen Property. In short term the office space on offer will outnumber the demand. The same tendency is valid for retail space, as only in the next 2.5 years it is expected that the retail space will increase eight times.

Meanwhile the interest of investors is expected to decrease due to the world crisis which has hit the property market. As result the secondary market will become rather active.  Those who bought property as investment will rush to sell it. The demand will be focused mainly in the cities. The prices of high quality residential property will rise in expensive city areas.

In the mountain and sea resorts there are too many properties on offer. In the end of 2007 there were more than 80 000 newly built properties there, while currently there is demand for about 65% of them.

According to Credit Centre the most popular mortgage in Bulgaria at the moment is for a plot of land and a prefabricated house. More and more Bulgarians prefer to move in the outskirts of their cities and to build their own house, rather than to buy an apartment in a block, where two-bedroom apartments are in the same price bracket.

Another new trend is the increasing number of customers who restructure their debt, due to the increase of the interest rate. Many Bulgarians face difficulties repaying their mortgages and some even their utility bills. According to Credit Centre in September each sixth credit has been taken to pay old debt.

In general more than 79% of the mortgages are for the purchase of property and only 1.3% for construction.

Another tendency is that for a second consecutive month the average size of the mortgage has decreased to 43 000 Euros, while during the peak of the property boom it has exceeded 50 000 Euros. Customers freeze their purchase or redirect to a cheaper property. The change is more obvious among the most popular customers – the middle class ones – who used to take a 80 % mortgage for the purchase of one-bedroom apartments. Now these clients are seeking smaller apartments and try to pay a large proportion of the price with their own funds.

The direct foreign investments in share capital in Bulgaria have increased by 237 million Euros in the fist six months of this year in comparison with the same period of last year according to Stoyan Stalev, the director of the Bulgarian Investment Agency.

According to the Bulgarian National Bank, the investments in share capital has increased to 2.029 billion Euros in the first seven months of 2008. This increase is due to the low taxes in Bulgaria, the monetary board and the fixed Euro-BGN rate, Stalev explained.

Burgas Municipality has received the BBB credit rating. The general evaluation has shown that the investment risk in Burgas is and it is a good place to invest. The financial audit of the municipality and the following credit analysis has outlined an income increase of 95%, low unemployment and increase of the tax income.