According to the British estate agents Knight Frank by 31 March 2009 the property prices in Bulgaria have increased by 3,3% annually and in the first three months of 2009 they have decreased only by 1,2%, which puts Bulgaria in ninth place in terms of property price growth.

The information provided by the Bulgarian National Statistics Institute (NSI) shows that in the first quarter of 2009 the property prices have fallen by 12,4% and by 8,4% on annual basis. According to NSI from January to March 2008 the properties in Bulgaria cost on average 1299,9 levs (650 Euros) per sq m. In the first quarter of this year this price has fallen to 1190,7 levs (just under 600 Euros) per sq m. If the information of the NSI is taken into account, then Bulgaria will be in the top ten shrinking property markets.

In the first quarter of 2009 the property prices in 32 out of 46 countries world wide have fallen. The most serious price decrease has been in Singapore, Dubai and Latvia. In Latvia alone the prices of property have been steadily falling in the last two years and only in the last 12 months they have fallen by 36%. In Dubai the prices have fallen by 40% only in the last three months. The short term forecast is that the recession will continue at least until the end of 2009.

Prices of apartments in prefabricated apartment blocks are higher by 100 Euros in Sofia. In middle class areas like Mladost and Borovo in the outskirts of the capital prices of prefabricated apartments vary from 550 Euros to 900 Euros per square metre. Newly built properties in those areas vary from 450 Euros to 850 Euros per square metre.

In the central parts of Sofia the prefabricated apartments sell for 1240 Euros per sq m while newly built ones for 770 Euros.

This is due to several reasons. One of them is that some of the newly built apartments are not of good quality. Some of the owners of prefabricated apartments on the other hand keep the prices from last year in their attempt not to lose money. In order to attract buyers, the developers offer free furnishing of at least one room as a bonus. However, despite the falling prices there are only a few buyers who are ready to pay in cash. Many developers offer payment in instalments, only to attract new buyers.

Despite the fact that the number of purchases has slightly increased, there are no expectations that the property prices will increase in the next three months. To the contrary, all professionals expect further reduction of the prices.

Bulgaria has a budget surplus but it can easily slide into a budget deficit of 1.5% of the GDP, according to the Italian Unicredit Group. The recession in Bulgaria is inevitable and will last 2 years, say the analysts. According to the expectations, the country’s economy will shrink by 3% in 2009 and by another 1% in 2010. It is expected that the budget will move from 3% surplus in 2008 to a 0.4% deficit in 2009 and a deficit of 1,5% in 2010.

The inflation is expected to fall to 3.5% for 2009 and to 1,8% in 2010 – which will be one of the few positive effects from the shrinking of the economy. The other positive effect will be the decrease of the current account deficit.

The most serious problem of Bulgaria is the sharp decrease of the foreign investment in the country which is expected to lead to a high unemployment exceeding 10%. It is expected that the unemployment will reach 12% in the next year.

The foreign investment will be 50% less than last year – from 16.7% to 7.5% of the GDP.

For the first time in four years there are clear signs that the interest towards holiday homes in Bulgaria has decreased. The major buyers on this market – the Irish and the English – have stopped buying. The estate agents now joke that the result of this crisis is exactly what the greens have been striving to achieve – there is no construction in the resorts whatsoever.

According to the analysts, the slump has come as a natural result of the wish of the developers to constantly increase the number of foreign buyers, taking advantage of the low prices. At the moment there are no buyers at all and many developers sell their properties well below their value. Those few developers who have free cash despite the recession do not want to invest in the overdeveloped Black Sea and mountain resorts. There the property prices have dropped so much that a studio costs as much as a new middle class car. Despite this, there are no buyers. The supply on the holiday property market is 80% higher than the demand. There are thousands of sellers and no buyers. There is no secondary market due to the low rental income.

40 000 Euros can buy you a furnished one bedroom apartment in Sunny Beach. Most buyers receive not only discounts but also fitted kitchens, furniture or at least laminated floor.

In Bansko the situation looks similar. A one bedroom apartment of 80 sq m, situated close to the gondola lift costs 38 000 Euros. Further away from the lift in the direction of the central parts of the town price fall and for 30 000 Euros investors can buy an apartment of 64 sq m. Completed furnished apartments sell for about 600 Euros per sq m.

Although the holiday homes market has reached new lows, the analysts believe that in long term there will be good prospects for its development. The recession itself has lead to to preservation of the nature and this will eventually attract new buyers and tourists. On the other hand the recession has brought new lower prices of materials and labour. Many companies which got involved in construction because of the high profits are now going bankrupt. The developers are becoming more careful and there are expectations that the new projects will be of much better quality and with better location.

Regardless of the fact that the British and Irish buyers have lost interest towards the Bulgarian market, the analysts expect that soon Russians, Poles and Scandinavians will start buying in great numbers in Bulgaria. However, they look for different products and it seems that what has been built for the British buyers will not satisfy them. The holiday apartment or house will be less important than the environment, the peace and quiet, and the services on offer.

Some analysts predict further 15% decrease of the property prices in Bulgaria. However, they do not expect prices to drop before the value.

The advise of the experts is to buy apartments now, while buyers of office and industrial space will have to wait for another 2-3 years for price to fall further down.

The number of purchases in the first three months of this year has fallen three times in comparison with the same period last year.

The number of the purchases will fall by more than 12% in comparison to 2008, according to analysts. Their number is expected to be about 263 000.

In 2008 the overall number of purchases have decreased by 7.8 % in comparison with 2007, totalling 300 100. According to the Land Registry the total number of new inscriptions in 2007 was 325 385.

Some analysts predict that more than 3000 from the existing 6000 estate agencies will go bankrupt. This means that 7000 people will lose their jobs. It is expected that mainly small estate agencies will close. From the big players, not more than 6% will go bankrupt. The workload of the brokers will fall and their monthly income is expected to be under 300 levs per month.

According to the National Statistics Institute the average area of a property is 63.82 sq.m. and the average price at the moment is 580 sq. m., meaning that the average price of the average apartment is 37015Euros.

The analysts expect that if property prices fall by 14.85%, the market will come back to life. This would mean a price of 493 Euros per sq. m. and 31 518 Euros for the price of an average size apartment 63.82 sq.m.