After the fall of the number of sales of properties and the price drop, the construction industry in Bulgaria and Romania has reached the bottom in the first half of 2009.  Most of the developers in both countries turned out to be unprepared for the shrinking of the local property market and the end of the constant influx of foreign investors of the last couple of years.  One of the major reasons for the sharply decreasing number of purchases is the limited access to mortgages which also caused the property prices to drop.  At the same time the number of the properties on offer continues to grow.  The shrinking of the property market has made many developers put on hold their new projects and drop the prices.  It is expected that the price drop in Sofia and Bucharest this year will be between 10% and 20%. At the end of 2008 the average property price in Sofia was 1250 Euros per sq m while in Bucharest it was 1800 Euros per sq m. The highest prices were in the Slovenian capital Ljubljana – 2800 Eurso per sq m.

Now is the best time to buy a property. the property prices have dropped significantly and there are no expectations for further decrease, according to large estate agencies. The average decrease of the prices in Sofia since the beginning of 2009 is 6%. The price drop is more significant – of up to 15% – in affluent areas where the prices have been unreasonably high during the property boom, like the Doctor’s Garden in Sofia, as well as in areas with bad infrastructure. By the end of the year prices will drop further by 5-6% but not more, say analysts. Even if there are further price reductions, buying property now will be profitable in the long run. Buyers can naturally wait a bit longer but it is not sure how much of their money will be eaten by the inflation.

The development of the property market in the next few months will depend on the economic recovery and on the job security of the buyers. According to bankers, many governments work toward the increase of the amount of cash in their countries so the increase of inflation is a normal consequence of the recession. As Bulgaria is in the conditions of a monetary board, the inflation is imported and it is a sign of the recovery. However, the recovery will not be felt before the middle of 2010. In this connection, prices will fall further but only of properties which are of lower quality or those belonging to developers who are now experiencing cash problems.

Prices of apartments in prefabricated apartment blocks are higher by 100 Euros in Sofia. In middle class areas like Mladost and Borovo in the outskirts of the capital prices of prefabricated apartments vary from 550 Euros to 900 Euros per square metre. Newly built properties in those areas vary from 450 Euros to 850 Euros per square metre.

In the central parts of Sofia the prefabricated apartments sell for 1240 Euros per sq m while newly built ones for 770 Euros.

This is due to several reasons. One of them is that some of the newly built apartments are not of good quality. Some of the owners of prefabricated apartments on the other hand keep the prices from last year in their attempt not to lose money. In order to attract buyers, the developers offer free furnishing of at least one room as a bonus. However, despite the falling prices there are only a few buyers who are ready to pay in cash. Many developers offer payment in instalments, only to attract new buyers.

Despite the fact that the number of purchases has slightly increased, there are no expectations that the property prices will increase in the next three months. To the contrary, all professionals expect further reduction of the prices.

According to some analysts the property market in Bulgaria will reach the bottom by the end of this year. The professionals are of the opinion that it is more important how the Bulgarian property market will start moving rather than when. It seems that the Bulgarian government does not have priorities and the economic recovery will be long and difficult. Around the world the property markets will recover with a different speed and at different times. The huge property markets in the USA and the UK give clear signs to the investors that the prices have become attractive and the expectations are that by the middle of the year there will be an increase in the number of purchases.
Developers operating in Bulgaria have raised their voices to request a more open business environment during the recession and clearer rules concerning their relationship with the state. They outline as a serious problem the behaviour of the electricity, water and heating suppliers which are huge monopolies. The suppliers do not invest in infrastructure but wait for the developers to build it and then buy this infrastructure from them, nobody knows when and how. The developers request that the state regulates these relations.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

Sofia is in third place among the European capitals in terms of profitability of office space. A high quality office building can have a 10% annual return. Only the Russian capital Moscow (11.5%) and the Ukrainian capital Kiev (14%) are rating better than Sofia. The profitability of office space in the Bulgarian capital has increased by 3% or 300 points from its lowest position three years ago. The figures for Belgrade are similar – 10% – while for the other Balkan cities this ratio varies from 7% to 8.5%. Only offices in the Romanian capital Bucharest show higher annual return of 9.5%. The more developed markets of office space like Prague, Budapest and Warsaw have much lower levels of annual returns of 6.75 % – 7.75%.

The rent of office space in the Bulgarian capital has actually decreased by 6.85% in the last year and now is 17 EUR/sq.m. on average as it is linked to the decreasing prices of properties in general. There is similar decrease of office rent in Madrid, Dublin, Moscow, Kiev, Belgrade, Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest. In the 15 older EU-member states the office rent has decreased by 4% on average.

For the first time in four years there are clear signs that the interest towards holiday homes in Bulgaria has decreased. The major buyers on this market – the Irish and the English – have stopped buying. The estate agents now joke that the result of this crisis is exactly what the greens have been striving to achieve – there is no construction in the resorts whatsoever.

According to the analysts, the slump has come as a natural result of the wish of the developers to constantly increase the number of foreign buyers, taking advantage of the low prices. At the moment there are no buyers at all and many developers sell their properties well below their value. Those few developers who have free cash despite the recession do not want to invest in the overdeveloped Black Sea and mountain resorts. There the property prices have dropped so much that a studio costs as much as a new middle class car. Despite this, there are no buyers. The supply on the holiday property market is 80% higher than the demand. There are thousands of sellers and no buyers. There is no secondary market due to the low rental income.

40 000 Euros can buy you a furnished one bedroom apartment in Sunny Beach. Most buyers receive not only discounts but also fitted kitchens, furniture or at least laminated floor.

In Bansko the situation looks similar. A one bedroom apartment of 80 sq m, situated close to the gondola lift costs 38 000 Euros. Further away from the lift in the direction of the central parts of the town price fall and for 30 000 Euros investors can buy an apartment of 64 sq m. Completed furnished apartments sell for about 600 Euros per sq m.

Although the holiday homes market has reached new lows, the analysts believe that in long term there will be good prospects for its development. The recession itself has lead to to preservation of the nature and this will eventually attract new buyers and tourists. On the other hand the recession has brought new lower prices of materials and labour. Many companies which got involved in construction because of the high profits are now going bankrupt. The developers are becoming more careful and there are expectations that the new projects will be of much better quality and with better location.

Regardless of the fact that the British and Irish buyers have lost interest towards the Bulgarian market, the analysts expect that soon Russians, Poles and Scandinavians will start buying in great numbers in Bulgaria. However, they look for different products and it seems that what has been built for the British buyers will not satisfy them. The holiday apartment or house will be less important than the environment, the peace and quiet, and the services on offer.

Because of the recession many sellers drop the prices of their properties to be able to sell them. The number of prices of apartments in the big Bulgarian cities which are under 30 000 Euros have drastically increased in the first three months of this year. One of the reasons for this is the lack of buyers due to the strict rules of the bank for lending. A few months ago all Bulgarian banks stopped lending money for the purchase of apartment in prefabricated blocks from the communist era. After that the banks have sharply increased the mortgage interest rates and have decreased the size of the mortgages, thus have put off many prospective buyers. In reality the Bulgarian property market have moved back to the situation years ago of expensive mortgages.

In Plovdiv 70 apartments are on the market for prices under 30 000 Euros. Only 20 of them are off plan. Prefabricated apartments with total area exceeding 90 sq m are for sale for as little as 13 000 Euros.
In Varna the number of the apartments under 30 000 Euros is 60, the cheapest property is a one-bedroom apartment for 20 000 Euros in the outskirts of the city. There is ever an apartment in the central parts of Varna offered at 30 000 Euros, which is still at the off-plan stage. Prefabricated apartments sell for about 25 000 Euros in the outskirts of Varna.

In the second largest city on the Black Sea, Burgas, the number of apartments on offer are twice more than in Varna but most of them are off-plan and in the outskirts of the city. The cheapest offer, €15 120, is for an off-plan apartment with are of 41 sq m. There are ten prefabricated properties for sale at prices starting at 24 000 Euros. All of them are located in the outskirts of Burgas.

In Russe there are 20 apartments under 30 000 Euros. The cheapest offer is for a studio for 12 900 Euros. Prefabricated apartments start at 15 000 Euros.

While in the country at the moment prices range from 440 to 580 Euros per sq m, in the capital Sofia, the property prices have dropped everywhere, apart from the central parts of the city. The sharpest drop of prices is in the southern parts of the city where there are more unfinished buildings then anywhere else in the city. The prices of prefabricated apartments have fallen more than any other. While last year they used to sell for more than 1000 Euros per sq m, now they are on offer for under 750 Euros per sq. m. Newly finished properties are offered for 700 – 800 Euros sq m. Off-plan apartments are offered for 500 Euros per sq m. Some developers offer discounts of 20 % of the prices of their finished apartments in cases of payment in cash. Others who are stable financially offer 15 leasing schemes to their customers.

The situation on the Bulgarian property market in the beginning of 2009 remains similar to the one in the end of 2008. There are no deals, the number of the properties for sale increase, while serious buyers take their time before they commit themselves to a purchase. The new features are – perks offered by the developers, estate agencies who do not take commissions and the birth of a new type of property in the property web sites – “property with falling prices”. Only on 3 and 4 of January 2009 the number of the properties with falling prices increased to fifteen. In this category the decrease of the prices of  houses beats all other properties  -  15 – 20%. Plots of land are in the second place, closely followed by offices and garages.  House prices fall everywhere – from Sofia to small towns like Smolyan. Even prestigious locations in the centre of Sofia can not prevent prices from falling.  The price of a house in Dondukov Boulevard in Sofia which has been for sale for some time has dropped by 40% to 450 000 Euros. It is difficult to say whether this will attract new buyers. One thing is certain, the Bulgarian property market has entered a period at the end of which the prices of properties will be very different from the price of the last two years.

The developers are the ones who experience the harshest problems. This is the reason why they look for solutions in all possible ways. Apart from dropping the prices, they have started to lease the apartments built by them to buyers with a minimal interest. Their return has been delayed by 15 years in some cases, thus preventing them from making new investments. Other bonuses include fitted kitchens costing up to 3000 lv and in the cases of two-bedroom apartments complete furnishing plus one or two parking lots. Some developers add to this a plasma TV. However, the analysts do not believe that these perks will do the trick and attract more customers. All these bonuses can not solve the problems of the buyers in getting a mortgage.

Despite the looming global financial crisis. New developments open in the Bulgarian Black Sea resort of Sunny Beach.

Oasis VIP Homes and Blue Pearl Apartment Complex in Sunny Beach will be presented at the largest property exhibition on the Balkans – BalPex. Oasis VIP Homes is the first luxury development of Galaxy Property Group in Sunny Beach. The development is in Mediterranean style with a park of more than 10 000 sq.m. and with three swimming pools. This project includes also Royal Sun development with 530 apartments.

The other project Blue Pearl is a development with apartments situated in the central part of the Sunny Beach. It comprises of 85 apartments overlooking the bay with Nessebar and St. Vlas, 16 shops, barber shop, gym and two swimming pools with a bar.

The collapse of the banks in the West is a serious warning for the future of Bulgarian banks. In the last three-four years, the Bulgarian banks enjoyed enormous profit and record growth levels but the world financial crisis is going to put an end to this.

Almost all Bulgarian banks have started to change their development policy following September, 14.  Almost all plans for the opening of new branches have been frozen. The major problem in the banking sector is the lack of fresh money. The foreign financing has stopped and now all Bulgarian banks have focused on the domestic market to keep their growth. It is expected that a within a year a real war to attract deposits of new clients will unleash and the perks for the clients will include holidays abroad and golden watches.

However the biggest loser will be the business and the ordinary consumer. Many banks have changed their policy to attract new clients and now focus on keep the reliable clients with a good track record. It will be very difficult to get a credit if you are a new company. The price of this will be high for the Bulgarian economy – so far the banks have been the major force of the economic growth.

Despite the new Law for the Black Sea Shore which came into effect in January of this year, the developers have found a way to continue building right on sea shore. They call their buildings apartment complexes instead of hotels. However, because of the new restrictions for the height of hotels on the shore and for their size – the height of a hotel should not exceeding 7.5 metres which in reality is two or three floors  – it is expected that investments in such hotels will not have a good return. The investors have switched to building villas and have ignored the warnings of the experts for a property slump.