LM Legal Services Blog

After the fall of the number of sales of properties and the price drop, the construction industry in Bulgaria and Romania has reached the bottom in the first half of 2009.  Most of the developers in both countries turned out to be unprepared for the shrinking of the local property market and the end of the constant influx of foreign investors of the last couple of years.  One of the major reasons for the sharply decreasing number of purchases is the limited access to mortgages which also caused the property prices to drop.  At the same time the number of the properties on offer continues to grow.  The shrinking of the property market has made many developers put on hold their new projects and drop the prices.  It is expected that the price drop in Sofia and Bucharest this year will be between 10% and 20%. At the end of 2008 the average property price in Sofia was 1250 Euros per sq m while in Bucharest it was 1800 Euros per sq m. The highest prices were in the Slovenian capital Ljubljana – 2800 Eurso per sq m.

Now is the best time to buy a property. the property prices have dropped significantly and there are no expectations for further decrease, according to large estate agencies. The average decrease of the prices in Sofia since the beginning of 2009 is 6%. The price drop is more significant – of up to 15% – in affluent areas where the prices have been unreasonably high during the property boom, like the Doctor’s Garden in Sofia, as well as in areas with bad infrastructure. By the end of the year prices will drop further by 5-6% but not more, say analysts. Even if there are further price reductions, buying property now will be profitable in the long run. Buyers can naturally wait a bit longer but it is not sure how much of their money will be eaten by the inflation.

The development of the property market in the next few months will depend on the economic recovery and on the job security of the buyers. According to bankers, many governments work toward the increase of the amount of cash in their countries so the increase of inflation is a normal consequence of the recession. As Bulgaria is in the conditions of a monetary board, the inflation is imported and it is a sign of the recovery. However, the recovery will not be felt before the middle of 2010. In this connection, prices will fall further but only of properties which are of lower quality or those belonging to developers who are now experiencing cash problems.

Prices of apartments in prefabricated apartment blocks are higher by 100 Euros in Sofia. In middle class areas like Mladost and Borovo in the outskirts of the capital prices of prefabricated apartments vary from 550 Euros to 900 Euros per square metre. Newly built properties in those areas vary from 450 Euros to 850 Euros per square metre.

In the central parts of Sofia the prefabricated apartments sell for 1240 Euros per sq m while newly built ones for 770 Euros.

This is due to several reasons. One of them is that some of the newly built apartments are not of good quality. Some of the owners of prefabricated apartments on the other hand keep the prices from last year in their attempt not to lose money. In order to attract buyers, the developers offer free furnishing of at least one room as a bonus. However, despite the falling prices there are only a few buyers who are ready to pay in cash. Many developers offer payment in instalments, only to attract new buyers.

Despite the fact that the number of purchases has slightly increased, there are no expectations that the property prices will increase in the next three months. To the contrary, all professionals expect further reduction of the prices.

According to some analysts the property market in Bulgaria will reach the bottom by the end of this year. The professionals are of the opinion that it is more important how the Bulgarian property market will start moving rather than when. It seems that the Bulgarian government does not have priorities and the economic recovery will be long and difficult. Around the world the property markets will recover with a different speed and at different times. The huge property markets in the USA and the UK give clear signs to the investors that the prices have become attractive and the expectations are that by the middle of the year there will be an increase in the number of purchases.
Developers operating in Bulgaria have raised their voices to request a more open business environment during the recession and clearer rules concerning their relationship with the state. They outline as a serious problem the behaviour of the electricity, water and heating suppliers which are huge monopolies. The suppliers do not invest in infrastructure but wait for the developers to build it and then buy this infrastructure from them, nobody knows when and how. The developers request that the state regulates these relations.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.