LM Legal Services Blog

The property prices in Bulgaria at the moment are at the real market value according to analysts.  Nevertheless it is still difficult to predict when they will start growing. The most popular property among buyers in Sofia  is the one-bedroom apartment. The areas of Liulin and Drujba offer the best prices now.  The most prestigious area is South Park. For 1000 – 12000 Euros/sq m there the buyers can get a new quality built apartment in a good location. However, most of the estate agents in the Bulgarian capital think that the real market is at prices below 900 Euros/sq m., depending on the quality of the finish.

The property market in Bulgaria was in complete collapse for about six months but from mid-March the first signs of awakening have appeared.  The decrease in the prices of the properties for sale is already a fact.  In the last two months sellers started decreasing the prices more boldly. There are more reduced property prices in Sofia than in any other town in Bulgaria. This comes to prove that the market in the capital is more mature and flexible. The average reduction in Sofia since the beginning of the year is 13.23%. In the central parts of the city it is 14.9%. In the area around Vitosha Boulevard the prices have fallen to 1800 Euros per sq m and around the Doctor’s Garden the prices have gone down to 2000 – 2800 Euros per sq m. In the so-called greater center the prices have decreased by 9.34% to 1190 Euros/sq m. Along Bulgaria Boulevard they have gone down by 2.96% to 978 Euros/sq m. In affluent Lozenets the reduction is 12.6% and the prices are around 1600 Euros/sq m. If the prices on offer are compared with the actual prices from the deals, it appears that prices go down even further. On the whole the purchases in 2009 are completed at prices which are 25-28% lower than the ones in 2008.  At the moment the difference between the offered price and the real price of the purchase is 15%.

In Varna, the second Bulgarian city, the property market seem to be weaker than is Sofia, mainly due to the prices that are still too high. However, there are some bold reductions of up to 40%. The average price drop is 9.97% since the beginning of the year. In the central parts and in the area of the Sea Garden the reduction is by 9% and the prices are about 1990 Euros per sq m. In Levski the reduction is by 3.9% and the prices are about 1074 Eur per sq m. In Briz the drop is by 9.8% and prices are about 1160 Eur/sq m. The actual purchases are at price which are 30% lower than those in 2008. The difference between the offered and the actual purchase price is 20%.

Prices of apartments in prefabricated apartment blocks are higher by 100 Euros in Sofia. In middle class areas like Mladost and Borovo in the outskirts of the capital prices of prefabricated apartments vary from 550 Euros to 900 Euros per square metre. Newly built properties in those areas vary from 450 Euros to 850 Euros per square metre.

In the central parts of Sofia the prefabricated apartments sell for 1240 Euros per sq m while newly built ones for 770 Euros.

This is due to several reasons. One of them is that some of the newly built apartments are not of good quality. Some of the owners of prefabricated apartments on the other hand keep the prices from last year in their attempt not to lose money. In order to attract buyers, the developers offer free furnishing of at least one room as a bonus. However, despite the falling prices there are only a few buyers who are ready to pay in cash. Many developers offer payment in instalments, only to attract new buyers.

Despite the fact that the number of purchases has slightly increased, there are no expectations that the property prices will increase in the next three months. To the contrary, all professionals expect further reduction of the prices.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

Sofia is in third place among the European capitals in terms of profitability of office space. A high quality office building can have a 10% annual return. Only the Russian capital Moscow (11.5%) and the Ukrainian capital Kiev (14%) are rating better than Sofia. The profitability of office space in the Bulgarian capital has increased by 3% or 300 points from its lowest position three years ago. The figures for Belgrade are similar – 10% – while for the other Balkan cities this ratio varies from 7% to 8.5%. Only offices in the Romanian capital Bucharest show higher annual return of 9.5%. The more developed markets of office space like Prague, Budapest and Warsaw have much lower levels of annual returns of 6.75 % – 7.75%.

The rent of office space in the Bulgarian capital has actually decreased by 6.85% in the last year and now is 17 EUR/sq.m. on average as it is linked to the decreasing prices of properties in general. There is similar decrease of office rent in Madrid, Dublin, Moscow, Kiev, Belgrade, Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest. In the 15 older EU-member states the office rent has decreased by 4% on average.