According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

Bulgaria has a budget surplus but it can easily slide into a budget deficit of 1.5% of the GDP, according to the Italian Unicredit Group. The recession in Bulgaria is inevitable and will last 2 years, say the analysts. According to the expectations, the country’s economy will shrink by 3% in 2009 and by another 1% in 2010. It is expected that the budget will move from 3% surplus in 2008 to a 0.4% deficit in 2009 and a deficit of 1,5% in 2010.

The inflation is expected to fall to 3.5% for 2009 and to 1,8% in 2010 – which will be one of the few positive effects from the shrinking of the economy. The other positive effect will be the decrease of the current account deficit.

The most serious problem of Bulgaria is the sharp decrease of the foreign investment in the country which is expected to lead to a high unemployment exceeding 10%. It is expected that the unemployment will reach 12% in the next year.

The foreign investment will be 50% less than last year – from 16.7% to 7.5% of the GDP.

The maximal new foreign debt of Bulgaria in 2009 will be increased by 25% or 2.5 billion levs (about 1.2 billion Euros) according to the decision of the parliamentary budget and finance committee. The council of Ministers will not make any changes in the credit framework during the year as the loans and the beneficiaries have been already chosen. The largest loan is of 600 million Euros and it is for the construction of the nuclear power station Belene.

Рublished in the Financial Times

By Kerin Hope and Theodor Troev in Sofia

There are warning signals everywhere, yet the European Union’s poorest member insists it can weather the global financial crisis.

Standard and Poor’s last month downgraded Bulgaria’s long-term debt to BBB. Fitch this month cut its rating to BBB- just one notch above junk bond status.

On Friday, the Bulgarian Industrial Association urged the finance ministry to redraft next year’s budget and cut the growth forecast from 4.7 per cent to 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

“We are witnessing an unprecedented global crisis… for the first time, the tensions in Bulgaria’s economy are caused not by internal but by foreign factors,” the association said.

However, Plamen Oresharski, the finance minister, rejects a suggestion that after bail-outs of Hungary and Ukraine by the International Monetary Fund, Bulgaria may be among the next in line.

“We are not in a similar position. Our banking system looks sound, with a good level of liquidity and healthy reserves,” he said. “Our concerns about the real economy are greater, but we still expect comparatively strong growth next year.”

Thanks to a record grain harvest, the economy is projected to expand this year by 6.9 per cent.

But the current account deficit – the highest in south-east Europe at about 24 per cent of GDP – appears unsustainable given an accelerating decline in foreign direct investment.

Investment inflows fell 48 per cent in the third quarter, according to central bank figures, following the collapse of a holiday-home construction bubble and a freeze on transfers by eurozone banks to their Bulgarian subsidiaries.

“Construction has been the most important growth driver, even more than in Spain, so the outlook is grave,” said Lubomir Christoff, a former chief economist at the central bank.

Sergey Stanishev, prime minister, has suggested Bulgaria should join the EU’s exchange rate mechanism next year. But although Bulgaria can point to a budget surplus and a low public debt (about 18 per cent of GDP), an annual inflation rate above 10 per cent rules out any chance of an early entry to the euro.

Mr Oresharski argues that an accumulated fiscal surplus of Lev12bn ($7.8bn, €6.2bn, £5.2bn) provides a cushion.

“One relief is that the government doesn’t have any short-term borrowing requirements,” he said.

In spite of rapid credit expansion since EU accession last year, total bank indebtedness is still low at about 30 per of GDP.

Lending is tight because foreign banks have lost access to funding from parent groups squeezed by the global credit crunch.

“We’ve been told to rely on our own resources, which means lending will slow,” said a senior executive at a foreign-owned bank.

Bulgaria’s currency board, which pegs the lev to the euro, is intended to eliminate foreign exchange risk. The arrangement also requires that money in circulation does not exceed central bank reserves.

With reserves at 180 per cent of currency in circulation, the lev was buttressed against an all-out attack on the currency board, Mr Oresharski said.

But other currency boards in the Baltics look less stable following Latvia’s request last week for EU help to fend off a crisis.

The size of the grey economy in Bulgaria is 30% of the country’s GDP or 21 billion levs for 2008 according to the Budget Committee of the Bulgarian Parliament. In comparison the whole of the budget for this year is 27 billion levs. The analysts claim that the negative tendency is due to the change of legal environment in Bulgaria after the EU accession together with the high expectations for the businesses in parallel with the political instability in the Interior and Economic Ministries.

The grey sector is mainly focussed in construction, tourism and agriculture. Most of the time the real turnover is not declared which leads to unreasonably low taxation.

Bulgaria’s budget surplus reached 3.3 billion levs (1.5 billion Euros) in the end of May 2008, according to the Ministry of Finance. While 2.7 billion levs come from the budget, 590 million levs come from European funding. According to the current law the annual surplus should not exceed 3% of the GDP, i.e. 1.8 billion levs.

Recently, the 360 million USD from the Iraqi debt to Bulgaria have been paid but this amount will not be considered part of the surplus. The collection of V.A.T. goes as planned and so far, 38.9% or 3.1. billion levs have been collected,  while the one of direct tax is even better – about 50% of the planned amounts have been collected. The capital gain tax payment has increased by 30% in comparison to the last year with a surplus of 300 million levs. The income tax collected until the end of May 2008 is 800 million levs and it represents 37% of the planned receipts.