LM Legal Services Blog

The Bulgarian economy has been affected by the world recession. The growth of Bulgaria’s GDP in the last quarter of 2008 was just 3.6%, according to the National Statistics Institute. This is an almost two fold slowing down – in the previous quarters the GDP’s growth was between 6.8% and 7.1%.

After Bulgaria moved out of the hyperinflation and the recession during the rule of the government of Zhan Videnov (1996-1997), the economy’s growth has never been so small, except once, nine years ago, in the last quarter of 1999 when the GDP grew by 3,5%. Since then the Bulgarian economy has been growing steadily and the annual growth in the last six years was never under 4%.

The Bulgarian industry has suffered the hardest blow. In the last quarter of 2008 it has had a negative growth of -0.1%. The export has decreased by 6,8% in October-December 2008. At the same time the import has shrunk by 3.7%. The growth of the GDP, although rather small, is due to the growth of the agricultural production of 20.6%. The reason for this is mainly the good harvest.

For the whole of 2008, the GDP’s growth was 6% which was due to the active economic growth in the first nine months of the year. Bulgaria’s GDP for 2008 was 66 billion levs.

The construction and the notarial chamber have offered to the Bulgarian government to freeze the interest rates for mortgages in case that this is the only home of the mortgagee.  It was proposed that the properties of the debtors should not be repossessed.  This will stabilise the property market according to the chamber.  Some analysts predict that the turnover in construction will decrease by 2 billion levs because of the recession. At the same time the debts between constuction companies will increase which will create a lot of tention.

The number of the purchases will fall by more than 12% in comparison to 2008, according to analysts. Their number is expected to be about 263 000.

In 2008 the overall number of purchases have decreased by 7.8 % in comparison with 2007, totalling 300 100. According to the Land Registry the total number of new inscriptions in 2007 was 325 385.

Some analysts predict that more than 3000 from the existing 6000 estate agencies will go bankrupt. This means that 7000 people will lose their jobs. It is expected that mainly small estate agencies will close. From the big players, not more than 6% will go bankrupt. The workload of the brokers will fall and their monthly income is expected to be under 300 levs per month.

According to the National Statistics Institute the average area of a property is 63.82 sq.m. and the average price at the moment is 580 sq. m., meaning that the average price of the average apartment is 37015Euros.

The analysts expect that if property prices fall by 14.85%, the market will come back to life. This would mean a price of 493 Euros per sq. m. and 31 518 Euros for the price of an average size apartment 63.82 sq.m.

There is a big difference between the property prices officially declared on the Bulgarian market and the willingness of the buyers to pay them. The drop of the number of purchases of property in the last months of 2008 has lead to a new tendency – the buyers dictate the situation on the property market.

According to the official information in the last year Bulgarian property prices have increased by 22%, which has been wiped out by the decrease of the demand for properties by 20% for the same period.

From the beginning of 2009 there is a new trend – the higher proportion of the purchase price  the buyer can pay without a mortgage, the higher reduction of the final price he will get. January 2009 was the first month without foreign participation on the Bulgarian property market. There were no buyers from abroad – neither Bulgarians, nor foreigners.

Due to the recession, renting has become a more popular option than buying. The lack of stability and the uncertainty have forced people to avoid long term bank loans.  At the same time those who have bought a second home have started renting it and the properties for rent have increased by 20%. The highest increase in the number of the rentals was in Rousse – of 31% – while in Blagoevgrad this increase has been the smallest in the country – only of  5%.

In comparison with 2007, the highest increase of the property prices was in Plovdiv – 32% – where the average price in 2008 was 756 Euros/sq.m. The capital Sofia was in second place with increase of 30.13% and an average price of 1087.33 Euros per sq. m. Veliko Turnovo and Rousse share the third place with 27%.

The newest hit on the property market at the Black Sea is three properties for the price of two. The developers have been experiencing serious problems with finding buyers, so they came with this new offer. In the recent months they have been offering free air-conditioners or fitted kitchens but this did not help to activate the property market. Now, the prices of all properties are not fixed. Prospective buyers receive only description of the property they are interested in. Bargaining is the name of the game and once there is interest price start dropping by 200 or even 5000 Euros and some times they even reach a 50% decrease of the initial price.  Luxurious properties right by the sea in Nessebar are offered with a brand new Toyota Yaris as a bonus. However, 2000 Euros per sq.m. do not seem to justify such kind of bonus.

When prices are announced they are very reduced in comparison with last year. A studio apartment in Albena is offered for 18 000 Euros, while one-bedroom apartment facing the sea is for sale for only 10 000 Euros.

The most luxurious apartment is in an apartment complex in Tsarevo. It is offered for 5.5 million Euros off-plan as the complex will be completed in 2011. The buyer of this property will receive the most expensive car at the moment Bugatti Veyron as a bonus.