Due to the debt crisis in the Eurozone, the demand for mortgages in Bulgaria has shrunk. The size of the average mortgage has decreased in October 2011 in comparison with September 2011 according to the Bulgarian National Bank. The number of the repaid mortgages has exceeded the number of the new mortgages. This is the third decrease in the number of the new mortgages since the beginning of the recession. The previous two decreases took place in January 2009 and in January 2011, as the first month of the year is traditionally bad for lending. In the last three years only the number of the new mortgages has been steadily rising by about 2% on annual basis.
This third decrease was minimal – by only 340 000 levs (about 170 000 Euros) – but according to analysts it shows the decrease in the demand in the last two months. However, it occurred exactly at the climax of the active crediting season when banks are most active. The reason is the deepening debt crisis in the Eurozone.

The bad and the restructured credits reached 9.022 billion levs ( 4,5 billion Euros) or 22% of the credit portfolio, non-inclusive of the overdrafts. The increase in the last month was by 222 million levs (111 million Euros) due to the increase of the bad business credits by 172 million levs reaching 5.6 billion levs (2.7 billion Euros). The size of the unpaid or restructured mortgages is 1.7 billion levs and of the bad personal credits – 1.5 billion levs .
The total size of all credits lent both to businesses and individuals is 51.8 billion levs (25 billion Euros).

According to the property analysts 40% of the property buyers in Bulgaria are prepared to pay between 50 and 80 000 Euros for their purchase. They are the largest group of property buyers in the country. In the second place (23%) are the buyers ready to pay between 80 000 and 120 000 Euros and in the third place (again 23%) are those under the 50 000 Euros margin.
According to the official statistics 40% of the sales have been of properties that cost from 30 000 to 50 000 Euros, followed by a group of properties (24%) that cost between 50 000 and 80 000 Euros. Although apartments under 30 000 Euros are the least in demand, the actual sales of such properties are 14% of the total number of the sales. The sales of apartments with prices exceeding 120 000 Euros are 7% of the actual sales which is equal to the number of enquiries for properties within this price margin.
Concerning rent, almost 60% of all enquiries were for apartments that rent for less than 250 Euros per month, of them 40% fall in the 150-250 Euro margin. However, the highest number of rental contracts (66%) is signed for properties that rent between 250 and 500 Euros per month. In the second place (17%) are those that rent for more than 500 Euros per month and in the third place (17% again) are properties renting for less than 250 Euros per month.

During his meeting with some large Czech investors the Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borissov has announced that his government will introduce new concessions for large companies investing in Bulgaria. The PM explained that these concessions will include lower taxation and support with plots of land and infrastructure. The Bulgarian government thus will try to attract large companies to the country.

According to the Czech government, some of the largest Czech investments abroad are in Bulgaria. PM Borissov underlined that it is not clear if the budget of Bulgaria will be able to provide funds for the Bulgarian-Czech Euro projects in the next two years.

The total  value of the properties owned by Bulgarian families was 140 billion levs (about 70 billion euros) in the end of 2009, while in the end of 2008 it was 176 billion levs (about 80 billion euros), according to Industry Watch. The drop is due to the devaluation of the properties during the recession and Industry Watch expect that this tendency will continue in the next six months.

The  devaluation of properties has slowed down in the last quarter of 2009 and it has reached 2% in the end of 2009 in comparison to the previous quarter. Because of this devaluation the purchase power of the middle class Bulgarian measured in square metres of living area has increased by 50% in 2009.

The financial resources of the Bulgarian families were 36 billion levs (18 billion euros) in total in the end of 2009 and this is an increase by 7% in comparison with 2008. The annual speed of the growth has slowed down, however, as in 2007 the growth was by 28.5% while in the last year it was just 8%. The amount of 36 billion levs does not include the debt and the credits of the Bulgarians. Last year the debt of the Bulgarians was 1/3 of their financial resources, now the level of debt has decreased according to Industry Watch.

The last quarter of 2009 was the worst one for the Bulgarian economy. According to the National Statistics Institute Bulgaria’s GDP has fallen by 6.2% and it has been 17 billion levs (about 8.5 billion Euros). The real annual drop for 2009 was of 5.1% in comparison with 2008. The official forecast of the Bulgarian government made in the autumn of 2009 was for a drop of 6.3% which later has been corrected to 4.9%.

The Bulgarian economy will continue sinking in 2010. The decrease of the GDP will be of 1%, according to the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasts.  For 2009 the expectations are of a significant  decrease of the GDP of 6.3%.  Bulgaria will be in recession for two consecutive years.  The decrease of the investments and the retail index will continue in 2010.  The expenses in Bulgaria’s budget will not increase in order to avoid deficit.  The major reason for this is the world wide recession. Although there have been signs for upcoming end to the recession in the USA, the risks for the world and the European economy are still there.

The slowing down of the economies of Bulgaria’s major trading partners has led to shrinking of Bulgaria’s export. The export of goods has decreased by 30,7% in the first five months of this year and it is expected that the decrease will be 10,5% on an annual basis. This has its effect on the transport and freight. As result the total volume of the export will shrink by 12,3%. The limited crediting and the slow increase of the personal incomes has led to a decrease in the investments and the sales in the country itself. The expectations are that in 2009 the spending of the average household will shrink by 4.5% and of the government by 3%.

In the following years the domestic demand, which has been generating mostly by the foreign investments, will be hard to resume the growth of the  Bulgarian economy to the levels of the last years.  That is why the recuperation of the economy is expected to materialise through the export. Having in mind the current world wide tendencies, this will not happen in 2010.  To the contrary, the export will continue decreasing and the expectations are that it will shrink by 3,8% next year.  That is why the forecast is for economic decrease of 1% in 2010. This will be accompanied by relatively low inflation about 2,2%.

The average decrease of  property prices in Bulgaria is by 23% in the first six months of 2009. There are areas of the country and especially cities where due to  overpricing, now the decrease is exceeds 30%. The expectations of analysts are that by the end of the year prices will decrease further by 5% to 15%.

The most significant price decrease in the capital Sofia where the prices of newly built developments in the area of Obelya have dropped by more than 40%. The lowest price drop is in Student Town – by only 10%. In the affluent Lozenets and Iztok where the price exceeded 2000 Euros/sq m in 2008,  now there is a decrease by 1/3. The decrease is similar in Liulin and Ovcha Kupel. In the down-market Banishora the lowest price of newly built apartments is 390 Euros/ sq m.  The lowest prices are in the southern and the eastern parts of the city because there many apartments have been bought off-plan as investment and now they have been completed and put on the market.

In the first half of this year buyers preferred mostly one-bedroom apartments not exceeding 50 000 Euros per sq m.  In the last month two of every ten buyers have purchased in the end a bigger and more expensive apartment than planned in the beginning due to the lower prices.  The number of owners who sell their property to buy a bigger one has increased, as the difference in the price is lower than ever.

In most cases buyers used their savings for the purchase of a property, while 44% of them have taken small mortgages or even consumer loans. 32% of the buyers who took mortgages have problems repaying them regularly but only 17% of them cannot repay their mortgage at all.

Village houses with big yards sell even under their value around Veliko Turnovo, Pernik, Sliven, Haskovo and Yambol, as owners just want to get rid of them. In smaller towns the purchase of property is rarely for the purpose of investment but mainly it is in case of change of the marital status and the recession is felt stronger on the property market. Unemployment is growing faster and first time buyers are very cautious.

Reuters

Bulgaria has attracted 24 billion Euros in foreign direct investment since 2005, when the Socialist-led
government came to power, but the global crisis has hit the flows and put an end to the credit-fueled economic boom.

Economists say Bulgaria is now paying the price for not using the boom to boost productivity and encourage exports. Here are capital flows went and some major investments since 2005: (in million euros)

                       2005      2006      2007      2008      2005-08
 REAL ESTATE DEALS     533.8     1,778.0   2,505.1   1,900.3   6,717.2
 FINANCIAL SERVICES    667.3     799.4     2,112.5   1,485.9   5,065.1
 PROCESSING INDUSTRY   868.2     1,064.7   906.2     810.9     3,650.0
 RETAIL                576.9     964.5     1,237.4   796.9     3,575.7
 CONSTRUCTION          171.6     501.0     797.4     465.0     1,935.0
 ENERGY                308.5     352.4     332.5     176.2     1,169.6

AES

U.S. energy company AES.N in 2006 launched construction of a $1.4 billion coal-fired power plant, the largest investment in Bulgaria since the fall of communism in 1989. AES is also building a 270 million euro wind park.

ENEL

In 2003, Italian utility ENEI.MI started a 700 million overhaul of Bulgaria’s thermal power plant Maritsa East Three, which was completed earlier this year. Enel holds a 73 percent stake in the coal-fired plant.

AURUBIS

Germany’s copper producer NAFG.DE has invested 80 million euros since 2006 in its plant in the town of Pirdop, the second biggest in the group.

The smelter was initially owned by Belgium’s Cumerio which was taken over by Norddeutsche Affinerie in 2008. The new group then changed its name to Aurubis to reflect the expansion.

GREAT WALL

China’s largest sport utility vehicle maker, Great Wall Motor Co, has started building an 80 million euro car
plant in a joint venture with Bulgaria’s Litex.

Litex said investment in the project, which will employ some 1,300 people, would reach a total of 300 million euros at a later stage.

KBC

In 2007, Belgian banking and insurance group KBC KBC.BR acquired 75 percent of Bulgaria’s EIBank, ninth-largest bank in
terms of assets in the country at the time, in a 295 million euro deal.

ALLIED IRISH BANKS

Allied Irish Banks ALBK.I bought 49.99 percent of specialist business lender Bulgarian-American Credit Bank (BACB)
for 216 million euros in 2008.

OMAN FUND

The Oman State General Reserve Fund, which is one of the key investment institutions of the government of the Sultan of Oman, paid 185.4 million levs for a 30 percent stake in Bulgaria’s Corporate Commercial Bank earlier this year.

59.8 billion levs  have been held in Bulgarian banks in May 2009 which is a decrease by 437 levs, according to the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB). This is the second most serious decrease of the amount of money in the Bulgarian banks since the beginning of the year. This is mainly due to the fact that the amounts which foreign banks and other foreign credit institutions keep in Bulgaria have decreased by 390 million levs in May 2009.  Despite this the amount which they keep here is not small – 15.4 billion levs.

In comparison   personal savings total 22.8 billion levs and the total of the funds of companies in Bulgarian banks is 19 billion levs.  The personal savings have decreased by 100 million levs despite the attracting interest rates of savings. The total amount of the  money in companies’ accounts has slightly increased.

From January 2009 the level of the  money in the accounts held at the Bulgarian banks tend to fluctuate both ways on almost permanent  basis.  The most significant withdrawals took place in January and in May.  In January about 800 million levs have been withdrawn, 500 million levs of them were withdrawn by foreign banks. The Bulgarian companies withdrew 600 million levs but personal savings increased by 340 million levs.

The personal accounts have a positive balance while the companys’ accounts are in the red.  In May individuals held 22.8 billion levs in their accounts while they had credits amassing to 17.7 billion levs. The companies at the same time held 19 billion levs into their accounts but they owe the banks 32 billion levs.  On the whole the Bulgarian banking system is one of the few in the EU which is profitable. Its profit in the end of May 2009 was 402 billion levs. The liquidity index is 20.6% which means that 20% of the attracted funds in the banks can be immediately paid in cash if requested.

The mortgage applications in Bulgaria have increased by 20% in April in comparison to March 2009. They are mostly young professionals who work for foreign companies and have good incomes. They would like to take advantage of the good prices and think that it is worth paying higher mortgage interest. Most of them have savings which can pay for 50% of the price of the property that they would like to buy and answer to the stringent requirements of the Bulgarian banks which do not lend higher than 50% mortgages.

In connection with this and with the decreasing property prices, the average amount of the mortgage in Bulgaria has fallen down to 35 236 EUR, levels typical for the summer of 2007.

The Bulgarian property market has entered into a constant slum and it is expected that the earliest in 2011 it will pick up, according to developers, analysts and estate agents.

This conclusion is based on the expectation for a deep recession in the country in the next two years. Prominent business analysts think that the recovery of the property market in Bulgaria entirely depends on the economic development of the country. The boom of the property market coincided with the economic boom. However, now the forecast of the IMF for Bulgaria is most worrying – recession in the next two years, high unemployment and shrinking of the spending. Traditionally, the economic process in Bulgaria lags behind the one in the developed Western countries. Only in case that Bulgaria starts using the European funds properly and more companies from Western Europe relocate in Bulgaria by 2010 the country will reach the lowest point of the economic recession and the economy will start moving upwards.

According to the IMF report about Bulgaria, 3,5 billion BGN from the planned budget income will not be collected in 2009 due to the recession. This will mean automatic activation of the so-called 10% rule – shrinking of the expenses of all ministries and government agencies by 10% in order to achieve an annual budget with a small profit.

The current IMF mission in Bulgaria aims to establish the economic situation in the country. The most dramatic development is the inability to collect VAT to the value of about 3 billion BGN from the initially planned amounts. The most optimistic forecast of the National Revenue Agency is that the VAT collection will be 5% less than the planned for 2009 or an amount exceeding 110 million BGN, which still will be an increase of 6% in comparison to last year.

Generally, the tax collection might increase by 12% in comparison with last year.

Concerning the collection of Capital Gain Tax, the optimistic forecast underlines that 14% or 360 million BGN will not be collected. Still the collection of Capital Gain Tax will be 2% more than last year.

According to the IMF report, the decrease of income will force Bulgaria cut the budget expenses to the value of 1,7 billion BGN in 2009. The state expenses must be cut, as well as the salary increases, because the economic growth in 2009 will slow down to 1%.

The decrease of lending and of the foreign investment will lead to the shrinking of sales in the country. This in combination with the decrease of property prices and the possible increase of the number of bad debt might lead to shrinking of the economy and a negative GDP growth of – 3,5%, according to the pessimistic forecast of the IMF.

Bulgaria has a budget surplus but it can easily slide into a budget deficit of 1.5% of the GDP, according to the Italian Unicredit Group. The recession in Bulgaria is inevitable and will last 2 years, say the analysts. According to the expectations, the country’s economy will shrink by 3% in 2009 and by another 1% in 2010. It is expected that the budget will move from 3% surplus in 2008 to a 0.4% deficit in 2009 and a deficit of 1,5% in 2010.

The inflation is expected to fall to 3.5% for 2009 and to 1,8% in 2010 – which will be one of the few positive effects from the shrinking of the economy. The other positive effect will be the decrease of the current account deficit.

The most serious problem of Bulgaria is the sharp decrease of the foreign investment in the country which is expected to lead to a high unemployment exceeding 10%. It is expected that the unemployment will reach 12% in the next year.

The foreign investment will be 50% less than last year – from 16.7% to 7.5% of the GDP.

402.6 million Euros is the total turnover from merging and acquisitions in the first three months of this year, which is a decrease of 18.2% or 72% less than in the first quarter of 2008. The recession has hit the merging and acquisitions in Bulgaria. Only 32 M&A have been completed in the first three months of this year. In the same period of last year there were 136 deals to the value of 3.5 billion Euros.

The decrease in the first three months of 2009 still can not give a clear idea about the market situation later during the year. The prices of companies have dramatically decreased and the number of deals has shrunk by 1/3 on annual basis. The analysts still think that the situation is not that bad. In March the number of the deals has increased which might be a sign of recovery at the end of 2009.

The investment funds will be able to buy properties on territory of EU-member-states, according to the draft amendments of the law for the investment funds suggested by the Committee for Financial Supervision. Until now these funds could invest only in Bulgaria. The other significant amendment is that the minimal capital will increase from 600 000 levs to 1 million levs. The funds will be able to cooperate and work together on large property project which they would not be able to do on their own. The requirement that the depository bank which holds the money of the fund should give credits to them shall be removed. Other amendments include the possibility for investment in bonds and futures issued with the aim to finance major infrastructural projects. The requirement to obligatory increase the initial capital in order to get the right to operate as a fund will be also removed.

The rules for terminating the license of the company. The fund will be able to request it and in such case it will continue to operate as a normal company not as an investment fund.

The number of the personal and business bad debt has been steadily increasing for a second consecutive month according to the statistics of the Bulgarian National Bank. In the end of February 2009 the bad and restructured debt has reached 1.65 billion levs which is an increase of 314 million lev only in a month. This is 3,4% of all loans. In comparison last year this ratio was slightly above 2%. According to analysts this level is still not worrying as the overall condition of the Bulgarian bank system is rather stable. Companies which collect bad debt claim that their work has increased by 40% in the first two months of 2009. The level of the repayment of loans received by Bulgarian banks have decreased by 20%. The level of partial repayments has increased, while the level of total repayments have decreased. Job losses and the increase of the part-time employment are key factors for this.

In February 2009 the number of the delayed repayment has increased by 19% in comparison with January 2009 and for January 2009 the increase was 13% in comparison with December 2008.

Although banks’ interest rates of savings accounts are still high, in February those of one- and three-month deposits started decreasing. At the same time the interest rates for six- and twelve-month fix term saving deposits are still increasing.

UniCredit Bulbank did not continue with their promotions and decreased the interest rate of the fourth period of their Increasing Interest scheme from 12% to 9% for the deposits in levs and from 10% to 7% for the deposits in Euros. The interest for their one year fix term deposit has dropped from 8.80% to 4.85%.

First Investment Bank did not continue their promotion Golden Deposit. The bank has launched their product March Deposit, a three month fix term deposit with interest rate, both for deposits in Euros and in levs, of 8.75% instead of 9.75% like the previous promotion.

Most other banks still keep increasing the interests of savings accounts in order to attract fresh money. Among them are: PostBank, Raiffeisenbank, Eibank, Invest Bank and Alpha Bank.

Concerning customer loans, all banks have increased their interest rates by about 1% in February, apart from Alpha Bank who decreased it by 0.7%.

Most of the mortgage rates have not increased and in the rare cases of an increase, it does not exceed 1%.

Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing, The Times

The crisis in Central and Eastern Europe has been triggered by the world’s financial turmoil. But the European Union was already set for an unpleasant showdown between its older members and its newer ones. Any recession — never mind one as acute as this — would have driven home the point that the east wants more than voters in the west want to pay.

The leaders of the first to join the EU club never wanted to admit, though, that the expectations of the newcomers were bound to be dashed. They didn’t want to be thought to be condemning them to a second-class wing of Europe. Nor did they want to spell out to voters how big the bill might be — and how funds might be diverted from their own countries to meet it. The blunt truth is that the newcomers’ hopes of becoming Spain, or the Irish Republic — poor countries transformed in a decade or so by the EU — were never realistic. Spain and Ireland joined a club of a few rich countries, and their own people’s income was about two thirds of the average. In contrast, former communist countries joined a loose, large club only half of which was wealthy in any sense. Their people were comparatively far poorer than the Spanish and Irish. The magical transformation was never going to happen.

The oddity now is that this crisis — one that threatens the stability of banks across Europe and might cause some eastern governments to default on debt — creates pressure for Western Europe to help. It won’t want to. But the intertwined finances give the east a case that the west can’t afford to stand back.

The EU’s decision five years ago to take in eight former communist countries, plus Cyprus and Malta, was one of the most generous gestures it has made. The spirit was admirable. But the idealism glossed over the difficulties, particularly on the economic side. The new members made big changes before they joined — but less so afterwards. Romania and Bulgaria, joining in 2007, have rubbed in the point that the EU has few sanctions if countries renege on reform. Romania, again, and Hungary, are now struggling with heavy debt because of reluctance to reform state industries and benefits. Others, such as Estonia, the Czech Republic and Poland, have better claim to be unlucky casualties of the collapse of export markets. Even there, debts were casually taken on in Euros while the income to meet them was in national currency, now sliding. Leaders and their people wanted to act as if they were already as rich as the rest of Europe, without income to match.

Even before this crisis the EU bill for helping these countries was large. A European Commission report last month (“Five years of an enlarged EU”) notes that in 2007 the new states received a fifth of the €99 billion that the EU gives to countries. That is set to rise between 2007 and 2013 to 35 per cent. The report blithely asserts that this “cannot be regarded as an unbearable burden” by old member states as it is only 0.2 per cent of their gross domestic product. The old members may not see it that way. To get the east out of this crisis the bill would have to be even larger, if only to rescue the banks from foreign currency loans.

There is a strong case to be made for the rescue. But it can’t be made in the airy tone in which the Commission has written its assessments of enlargement, which makes taboo any suggestion that the move was risky or expensive or overoptimistic in what it led the newcomers to expect. It was all of these. It was also worth doing.

The only argument which will now persuade Western European voters that they should pay even more is that, otherwise, Europe faces dangerous disintegration. For once, though, that kind of alarmist talk is justified.

Companies in Bulgaria drain their bank accounts while Bulgarian banks fight for the savings of individual clients and increase the interest rates to compensate. According to analysts this is due to the lack of fresh money. In the last months the Bulgarian banks have cut financing of companies to minimum – only 240 million levs for the whole of January – thus forcing companies to withdraw their money. The other reason is tax preferences which made companies pay their tax in advance.

Some bankers do not agree with this explanation and think that companies just transfer their money from one account into another and explain this with the slow down of economy and the drop in the volume of export. These make many companies freeze their projects for enlargement and renovation. In this way they release money into their current accounts. According to some bankers some companies even put their money into personal accounts to take the benefit of the high interest rates.  The annual interest for personal accounts is 2% higher than the ones for companies and when it is a matter of 10-15 million levs this is a significant difference.

Only in January the recession and the optimisation of liquidity of the banks have led to the withdrawal of 550 million levs from the company’s current accounts and more than 170 million levs from the savings accounts. At the same time the total amount of the money in personal fixed term savings accounts has increased by 708.4 million levs. This contradicts the real abilities of households to save money. In the last year the personal savings in Bulgarian banks did not exceed 230 million levs. Svetoslav Gavriysky, the executive director of Allianz Bank, however thinks that from an accountancy point of view this is a very complicated combination and the withdrawal of money from the company’s current accounts is due to the lack of fresh credits.

The Bulgarian economy has been affected by the world recession. The growth of Bulgaria’s GDP in the last quarter of 2008 was just 3.6%, according to the National Statistics Institute. This is an almost two fold slowing down – in the previous quarters the GDP’s growth was between 6.8% and 7.1%.

After Bulgaria moved out of the hyperinflation and the recession during the rule of the government of Zhan Videnov (1996-1997), the economy’s growth has never been so small, except once, nine years ago, in the last quarter of 1999 when the GDP grew by 3,5%. Since then the Bulgarian economy has been growing steadily and the annual growth in the last six years was never under 4%.

The Bulgarian industry has suffered the hardest blow. In the last quarter of 2008 it has had a negative growth of -0.1%. The export has decreased by 6,8% in October-December 2008. At the same time the import has shrunk by 3.7%. The growth of the GDP, although rather small, is due to the growth of the agricultural production of 20.6%. The reason for this is mainly the good harvest.

For the whole of 2008, the GDP’s growth was 6% which was due to the active economic growth in the first nine months of the year. Bulgaria’s GDP for 2008 was 66 billion levs.

In the last years the bank credits have been the driving force of the Bulgarian economy. Now the credit flow has dried up, the money from the gray economy has become the majour factor.

Only credits to the amount of 33.6 million levs have been lent by the banks to Bulgarian businesses in December 2008. In comparison, the average amount of the business credits for 2008 is 626.9 million levs.

Many companies have been experiencing cash flow problems and they can not pay their expenses. The bad debt has increased and some analysts expect 30% of the companies in the country to go bankrupt. Others are more moderate in their expectations and do not expect a total collapse.

The construction industry is in a very bad state, despite the opinion of the analysts. The need for fresh cash is so serious that some of the companies have switched to barter deals. They offer their business partners apartments and office space instead of cash.  The problem of many developers is that they have started several projects at the same time and have relied on off-plan purchases. However, once the credit policy of the banks became more strict, the off-plan purchases have stopped.  As result, many investors had to freeze their projects, some of them stopped paying their subcontractors and suppliers. The banks have ignored the whole of the construction industry and now lend money only to companies who also work in another field of business, which can guarantee the repayment of the loans. There is still no official information about the level of debt in the construction industry but it is expected to be quite serious.

The Bulgarian banks – First Investment Bank, Central Cooperative Bank, Corporative Trade Bank – have increased their incomes by 15%, reaching 338.7 million levs, due to increasing their interest rates. The net profit of these banks for 2008 was 166.7 million levs, an increase by 13% in comparison with 2007. The increase of taxes and fees have led to the increase of their income by 12 million levs. However, their expenses have also increased to 2890 million levs from 236 million levs in the previous year.

According to analysts there are no indication for crisis in the banking sectior. The growth of the Bulgarian banks come to prove that they have not been affected dramatically by the recession.
Most of the analysts think that there will be no economic catastrophy and the private business will be able to repay bank loans.

Due to the recession the banks have now offered higher interest rates for savings accounts which range from 6% to 10%. The most popular are fifteen day, one month and three month savings accounts because there is no loss of the interests.

With the increase of the savings accounts’ interests, the loan interest has also increased by 2% on average. Concerning  mortgages, in the last months there has not been any increase due to the fact that customers are unwilling to take new mortgages. The interest rates remain 8% for the mortgages in Euros and 9,5% for the mortgages in levs.

The basic index on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, SOFIX, has decreased by 4,38% and has reached the minimum for 2009. The other index on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, BGTR30, has fallen by 4%. During the yesterday session the shares of 82 company have been traded. 61 of the deals registered loss while only 14 of them registered profit.

The situation on the Bulgarian property market in the beginning of 2009 remains similar to the one in the end of 2008. There are no deals, the number of the properties for sale increase, while serious buyers take their time before they commit themselves to a purchase. The new features are – perks offered by the developers, estate agencies who do not take commissions and the birth of a new type of property in the property web sites – “property with falling prices”. Only on 3 and 4 of January 2009 the number of the properties with falling prices increased to fifteen. In this category the decrease of the prices of  houses beats all other properties  -  15 – 20%. Plots of land are in the second place, closely followed by offices and garages.  House prices fall everywhere – from Sofia to small towns like Smolyan. Even prestigious locations in the centre of Sofia can not prevent prices from falling.  The price of a house in Dondukov Boulevard in Sofia which has been for sale for some time has dropped by 40% to 450 000 Euros. It is difficult to say whether this will attract new buyers. One thing is certain, the Bulgarian property market has entered a period at the end of which the prices of properties will be very different from the price of the last two years.

The developers are the ones who experience the harshest problems. This is the reason why they look for solutions in all possible ways. Apart from dropping the prices, they have started to lease the apartments built by them to buyers with a minimal interest. Their return has been delayed by 15 years in some cases, thus preventing them from making new investments. Other bonuses include fitted kitchens costing up to 3000 lv and in the cases of two-bedroom apartments complete furnishing plus one or two parking lots. Some developers add to this a plasma TV. However, the analysts do not believe that these perks will do the trick and attract more customers. All these bonuses can not solve the problems of the buyers in getting a mortgage.

The loan interests in Bulgaria have risen to the levels of 2005. In December 2008 half of the banks in the country have increased their interest and some of them have also increased the fees for servicing a loan.

It is unlikely that loan interests will fall in the first six months of 2009. Some bankers expect this to happen at the end of the year. This means that the prices of credits will not decrease. It is expected that the level of bad debt will increase.

According to a research carried out by Sega daily newspaper, some Bulgarian banks continue to charge a penalty fee in the cases of early repayment of customers’ loans, although the amendments to the Law for the Customer Loan have come into effect from 5 January 2009. According to the amendments, banks should not collect a penalty fee if loans ranging from 400 to 40 000 levs are repaid before the maturity date.

According to First Investment Bank, they still collect penalty fee because it is not clear if the amendment will affect old loans or will be valid only for new loans. UniCredit, UBB and Piraeus Bank said that they still did not have internal instructions and at the moment they collect the penalty clause as per the contracts signed with their clients. Allianz Bank declared that they continue to charge a penalty fee of 5% of the total amount if the customer pays in one go less than 6 instalments but if they pay more instalments at once, there is no penalty fee.

The number of the customer loans in Bulgaria has not decreased, only the requirements of the banks have become more strict, according to the statistic of the Bulgarian National Bank. The total amount of the bank loans in September was 48.15 billion levs which is an annual increase of 17.55 billion levs or 47.8%. in October the number of the customer loans continued to grow and it has reached 48.9 billion levs, and increase of 750 million levs in one month. The ratio of the customer loans in the bank assets have been constantly increasing and have reahced 71.24% in October 2008.

Between September 2007 and September 2008 the company loans have increased faster than the individual customer loans. The companies have received more than 10 billion levs in loans while the individual customers 5.1 billion levs.

However, it is worrying that the size of the loans exceeds the deposits of individuals and companies – in October they have reached 118.97% of the deposits.
ми.

The maximal new foreign debt of Bulgaria in 2009 will be increased by 25% or 2.5 billion levs (about 1.2 billion Euros) according to the decision of the parliamentary budget and finance committee. The council of Ministers will not make any changes in the credit framework during the year as the loans and the beneficiaries have been already chosen. The largest loan is of 600 million Euros and it is for the construction of the nuclear power station Belene.

Bulgaria alongside Romania, will experience a shock because of the global slow down of the world economy according to analysts. There will be job cuts both in these countries, as well as in Spain, Italy and the U.K. where many Bulgarians and Romanians work to support their families back home. The lack of access to foreign capital will be the major problem for the the East-European economies next year according to BNP Paribas. The huge foreign disbalance must be corrected now to avoid problems in the future. The expectation is that Romanian economy will shrink by 0.6%, while Bulgarian economy will shrink by 1,2%. The official unemployment figures are on the increase and has already reached 5.9% in Bulgaria and 4% in Romania in October 2008. In the last six years, unemployment has been steadily decreasing due to the emigration of work force to the West. The return of many of the this guest workers back home will combine with the inability of those who remain abroad to support their families in their homeland. In Bulgaria the money sent from workers abroad used to amount to 5% of the GDP according to the International Organisation for Migration.